644 Goist Ln · Girard, OH 44420

$76,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1938 0.50 ac lot $118/sqft · 11% below area Est $86k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy one-bedroom, one-bathroom ranch home features convenient single-level living and is tucked away on a quiet dead-end street. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof that’s only 5 years old and a new hot water tank installed in 2023. The kitchen comes equipped with appliances including a new stove and microwave, making it move-in ready for everyday use. Window air conditioning units will remain with the property for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage, perfect for parking or extra storage. Being sold as-is, this home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with solid potential. Don’t miss your chance to own this affordable home in a quiet, low-traffic location! as is City water avaliable for tie in

Key facts

• New stove
• Recent updates
• New hot water tank

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW HOT WATER TANK
• NEW STOVE
• NEW MICROWAVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 7.0% in Girard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#605 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Local (suburban): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #555 of 656 in OH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $529 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $76k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $71,910 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.81%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,971
• List price: $76,500
• Delta: -11.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 Secrist Ln	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	740 (+14%)	16mo	$86,000	$116	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $7,865
• Equity at exit: $11,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $32,980
• Equity at exit: $6,614

Cash invested: $21,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44420

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$401
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $76,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $361	-5% $340	+0% $318	+5% $296	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $276	+0% $318	+5% $360	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $337	base $318	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,125
• Closing costs: $2,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $76,500 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $76,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $76,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,750 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,750 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,750 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,750 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,750 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,750 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,750 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,750 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,750 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $82,500 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    This cozy one-bedroom, one-bathroom ranch home features convenient single-level living and is tucked away on a quiet dead-end street. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof that’s only 5 years old and a new hot water tank installed in 2023. The kitchen comes equipped with appliances including a new stove and microwave, making it move-in ready for everyday use. Window air conditioning units will remain with the property for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage, perfect for parking or extra storage. Being sold as-is, this home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with solid potential. Don’t miss your chance to own this affordable home in a quiet, low-traffic location! as is City water avaliable for tie in

16. 2026-05-08
    price $87,500 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    This cozy one-bedroom, one-bathroom ranch home features convenient single-level living and is tucked away on a quiet dead-end street. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof that’s only 5 years old and a new hot water tank installed in 2023. The kitchen comes equipped with appliances including a new stove and microwave, making it move-in ready for everyday use. Window air conditioning units will remain with the property for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage, perfect for parking or extra storage. Being sold as-is, this home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with solid potential. Don’t miss your chance to own this affordable home in a quiet, low-traffic location! as is City water avaliable for tie in

17. 2026-05-04
    price $89,900 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    This cozy one-bedroom, one-bathroom ranch home features convenient single-level living and is tucked away on a quiet dead-end street. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof that’s only 5 years old and a new hot water tank installed in 2023. The kitchen comes equipped with appliances including a new stove and microwave, making it move-in ready for everyday use. Window air conditioning units will remain with the property for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage, perfect for parking or extra storage. Being sold as-is, this home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with solid potential. Don’t miss your chance to own this affordable home in a quiet, low-traffic location! as is City water avaliable for tie in

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $94,900 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    This cozy one-bedroom, one-bathroom ranch home features convenient single-level living and is tucked away on a quiet dead-end street. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a roof that’s only 5 years old and a new hot water tank installed in 2023. The kitchen comes equipped with appliances including a new stove and microwave, making it move-in ready for everyday use. Window air conditioning units will remain with the property for added comfort. Outside, you’ll find a detached one-car garage, perfect for parking or extra storage. Being sold as-is, this home is ideal for buyers looking to add their own personal touch or invest in a property with solid potential. Don’t miss your chance to own this affordable home in a quiet, low-traffic location! as is City water avaliable for tie in

19. 2022-09-02
    historical
20. 2022-08-12
    historical Contingent
21. 2022-07-19
    price $67,500
22. 2022-06-21
    listed $69,500 Active
23. 1988-04-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$32/yr (+$3/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,285
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,027
• − Management: −$1,027
• − Depreciation: −$2,225
• Taxable income: $2,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$662
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Local
• NCES district ID: 3905019
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $48,604
• Composite: 30.59/100
• National rank: #6202
• State rank: #555 of 656 in OH

Livability — Girard

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #10378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 15,293
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,293
• Household income: $61,707
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 351.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.72%
• Current HPI: 221.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+312.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $82,500 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $87,500 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-06 Listed $94,900 MLSNOW
• 2022-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2022-08-12 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2022-07-19 Price Changed $67,500 MLSNOW
• 2022-06-21 Listed $69,500 MLSNOW
• 1988-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.