The Evergreen Plan · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$147,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Winchester Series / 1660H22A6G features a smartly designed 910-square-foot layout with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The open-concept living area flows into a well-equipped kitchen, creating a welcoming space for relaxation and entertaining. Comfortable bedrooms offer privacy, while modern finishes enhance the home's appeal. The 1660H22A6G combines efficiency and style, making it a great option for those seeking a cozy yet functional home.

Key facts

• Listed 225 days

🏗️ New construction. The $147,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $130,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.59%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,950
• List price: $147,900
• Delta: -62.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Joslin Rd #7	0.47mi	2/1.0	960 (+6%)	2mo	$75,000	$78	64
101 Joslin Rd #8	0.47mi	2/1.0	960 (+6%)	9mo	$40,000	$42	58
491 Mill Rd #8	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+9%)	3mo	$83,000	$84	56
491 Mill Rd #30	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+19%)	0mo	$65,000	$60	48
330 Gupster Road #47	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,136 (+25%)	1mo	$150,000	$132	45
400 Gupster Rd #7	0.78mi	2/2.0	960 (+6%)	14mo	$71,000	$74	44
400 Gupster Rd	0.78mi	2/2.0	960 (+6%)	14mo	$71,000	$74	44
491 Mill Rd #33	0.46mi	2/1.0	696 (-24%)	7mo	$38,000	$55	44
171 Taylor Cutoff Rd	0.93mi	2/1.0	984 (+8%)	6mo	$240,000	$244	43
213 Bogey Ln	1.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	828 (-9%)	7mo	$399,000	$482	35
81 Bogey Ln	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+23%)	5mo	$529,270	$473	31
402 Toad Rd	1.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+21%)	15mo	$380,000	$344	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-136,095
• Equity at exit: $58,143

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-212,305
• Equity at exit: $33,716

Cash invested: $109,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $167,000 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 226 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +141.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,849/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-1,145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,411

Max offer price $224,243

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-876	-5% $-1,010	+0% $-1,145	+5% $-1,280	+10% $-1,415
Rent	-10% $-1,300	-5% $-1,223	+0% $-1,145	+5% $-1,068	+10% $-990
Rate	-1.0pp $-949	-0.5pp $-1,046	base $-1,145	+0.5pp $-1,246	+1.0pp $-1,349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,488
• Closing costs: $11,698
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $147,900 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $147,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $147,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $147,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $147,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $147,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $147,900 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $147,900 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $147,900 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $147,900 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $147,900 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $147,900 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $147,900 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $147,900 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $147,900 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $147,900 Active 210 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $147,900 Active 209 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $147,900 Active 208 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $147,900 Active 207 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $147,900 Active 206 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $147,900 Active 205 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $147,900 Active 204 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $147,900 Active 203 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $147,900 Active 202 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $147,900 Active 201 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $147,900 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $147,900 Active 199 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $147,900 Active 198 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $147,900 Active 197 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $147,900 Active 196 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $147,900 Active 195 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $147,900 Active 194 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $147,900 Active 193 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $147,900 Active 192 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $147,900 Active 191 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $147,900 Active 190 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $147,900 Active 189 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $147,900 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $147,900 Active 187 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $147,900 Active 186 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $147,900 Active 185 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $147,900 Active 184 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $147,900 Active 183 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $147,900 Active 182 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $147,900 Active 181 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $147,900 Active 180 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $147,900 Active 177 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $147,900 Active 175 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $147,900 Active 174 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $147,900 Active 173 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,843
• − Property taxes: −$5,849
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$11,344
• Taxable loss: −$21,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greywolf Elementary School Middle Sequim Middle School High Sequim Senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 76,817 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $147,900 Zillow