707 Mill Valley Pl · West Palm Beach, FL 33409

$170,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $233k · 27% under $680/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and very well maintained townhome centrally located in the community of Waterside Luxury. This property offers a lot of privacy on the lake side. On the main floor is the kitchen (with a new fridge & dishwasher), living room, half bath and laundry room (new washer). The second floor features 2 master bedrooms and spacious closets. Tile and wood flooring through out. Large private patio with lush landscape for entertaining or relaxing . The community offers a private clubhouse, pool, 2 tennis courts and volleyball court, gym. Close to I95, shopping and restaurants. Central Location.

Key facts

• $680 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call for details)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $680; HOA covers common areas; Association offers additional amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; 2 stories; Resale condition; Faces north
• Construction: Built with CBS (concrete block/stucco) construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Electric range; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in West Palm Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Trails Elementary School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 650 students, 73% FRL); Bear Lakes Middle School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 842 students, 74% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,052/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.14%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,128
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
596 Green Springs Pl	0.12mi	2/2.5	1,288 (0%)	2mo	$195,000	$151	93
4041 San Marino Blvd #102	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+1%)	12mo	$251,000	$193	68
1022 Green Pine Blvd Unit E	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,370 (+6%)	8mo	$218,000	$159	64
1108 Green Pine Blvd Unit H3	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-14%)	5mo	$199,500	$181	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,822
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,981
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33409

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,927/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $490	+0% $442	+5% $394	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $321	+0% $442	+5% $562	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $527	-0.5pp $485	base $442	+0.5pp $398	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1912 Stratford Way West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1350	$3,000	$2.22	25d	1	0.20mi
4543 Tara Cove Way West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$3,000	$1.66	0d	1	0.30mi
1211 Pine Sage Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$3,200	$2.34	6d	1	0.35mi
4567 Brook Dr West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,000	$1.96	25d	1	0.46mi
4385 Willow Brook Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$3,200	$2.18	23d	1	0.64mi
4400 Portofino Way West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1222	$2,528	$2.07	18d	60	0.69mi
1979 Brandywine Rd Unit 1979-108 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$3,205	$2.30	25d	1	0.96mi
2820 Tennis Club Dr #408 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$3,800	$2.36	25d	1	1.07mi
3810 Rowena Cir West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,000	$1.99	9d	1	1.08mi
3810 Rowena Cir West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,150	$2.09	15d	1	1.08mi
2480 Presidential Way #1903 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1855	$4,650	$2.51	25d	1	1.22mi
2480 Presidential Way #902 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1855	$4,650	$2.51	6d	1	1.22mi
2450 Presidential Way #7 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1855	$4,700	$2.53	3d	1	1.25mi
2450 Presidential Way #7 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1855	$4,700	$2.53	25d	1	1.25mi
2425 Presidential Way West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1294	$4,500	$3.48	25d	1	1.31mi
2400 Presidential Way #1906 West Palm Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	1294	$3,000	$2.32	25d	1	1.37mi
1991 Presidential Way West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$4,905	$3.30	17d	1	1.41mi
1714 Consulate Pl #101 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1377	$3,000	$2.18	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 686-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $170,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,927 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,927 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,927
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,930
• − Management: −$2,930
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,362
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$807
• After-tax cash flow: $4,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Palm Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1255

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Palm Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 222,012
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,489
• Household income: $67,073
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1333.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 31% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 10% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.54%
• Current HPI: 374.2506
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $170,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-17 Sold (MLS) $162,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-06-26 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2020-06-08 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2020-05-30 Listed $168,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $142,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-06-08 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2016-06-03 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2016-04-26 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2016-04-21 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2016-04-14 Listed $139,900 Beaches MLS
• 2009-09-28 Sold (MLS) $66,500 Beaches MLS
• 2009-05-29 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2009-05-14 Listed $61,500 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,927 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.