415 W Aldine St · Iowa Park, TX 76367

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1940 $116/sqft · 26% above area Est $119k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Corner lot property in Iowa Park featuring carport, extra front parking & workshop with electric. Inside offers formal dining with new laminate flooring through much of the home. Kitchen has newly painted cabinets, pantry & great counterspace, open to den with wood-burning fireplace. Isolated master with half bath plus 2 bedrooms & full bath. Fenced backyard with attached storage/laundry area. Solar panels removed & new roof installed prior to closing. IPCISD

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Carport
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CARPORT
• WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRIC
• FORMAL DINING
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWLY PAINTED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#272 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Iowa Park CISD (town): math 57% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.79%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,006
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 25.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 S Park Ave	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+2%)	3mo	$50,000	$38	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $90,139
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $258,927
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76367

• Home prices YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,963/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 W Louisa Ave Iowa Park, TX	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,500	$1.31	43d	1	0.42mi
909 Van Horn St Iowa Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,645	$0.98	43d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-07
    listed $149,900 Active 487-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,963
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$192
• After-tax cash flow: $1,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Iowa Park CISD
• NCES district ID: 4824260
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,689
• Composite: 45.57/100
• National rank: #2597
• State rank: #129 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #6350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Park, TX
• City population: 14,013
• Population (ZIP): 14,013

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.29%
• Current HPI: 387.78
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,963 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.