1428 Carrillo St · The Villages, FL 32162

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2000 5,551 sqft lot Est $330k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this WONDERFUL 3/2 Designer Whispering Pine with ENCLOSED LANAI and REAR PATIO with PRIVACY LANDSCAPING nestled in the highly desirable Village of Santiago! BOND PAID! ROOF (2020) DECORATIVELY PAINTED drive and walk ways, CURBED landscaping with STONED beds, COVERED entry vestibule, and FROSTED GLASS storm door and sidelight welcome you into the GENEROUS foyer of this INCREDIBLE home! The OPEN-CONCEPT living and dining areas showcase GORGEOUS LAMINATE flooring, ELEGANT ARCHED DOORWAYS, and SOARING VAULTED CEILINGS, creating a BRIGHT and AIRY atmosphere with an impressive sense of space. TWO SOLAR TUBES further enhance these rooms offering an ABUNDANCE OF NATURAL LIGHT. The STUNNI

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Rear patio
• Privacy landscaping

Tags

• ENCLOSED LANAI
• REAR PATIO
• PRIVACY LANDSCAPING
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GORGEOUS LAMINATE FLOORING
• ELEGANT ARCHED DOORWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee includes pool and recreational facilities; Total annual fees reported; Total monthly fees reported
• Financial info: CDD (community development district) applicable; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community pool and recreational facilities; Tennis courts; Pickleball and shuffleboard courts; Playground; Dog park; Trails and sidewalks; Golf course access; golf carts allowed; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions and special community restrictions; Vehicle and fence restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 24); Driveway; Garage door opener; Golf cart parking; Ground level parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Home faces east; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: WHISPERING PINE; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Rear porch; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Level lot; Near golf course; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Programmable thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Shutters on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,142/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,197 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2517 Privada Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+0%)	3mo	$312,000	$204	87
2713 Castillo Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+1%)	3mo	$305,000	$199	83
1415 LA Hermosa Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-2%)	3mo	$300,000	$201	82
2573 Caribe Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-3%)	1mo	$320,000	$217	80
2412 Merida Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+0%)	2mo	$282,500	$185	78
2630 Caribe Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+10%)	2mo	$320,000	$191	76
2670 Privada Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-8%)	0mo	$307,450	$221	73
3017 Hillside Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	1mo	$334,900	$220	70
3065 Glenwood Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-2%)	2mo	$310,000	$208	66
3040 Batally Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	2mo	$350,000	$231	64
3025 ST Thomas Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-8%)	1mo	$397,000	$283	55
3089 Burbank Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+9%)	2mo	$410,000	$248	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-32,492
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,228
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,028/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,800

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	20d	1	0.49mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	20d	1	0.51mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	20d	1	0.57mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	20d	1	0.61mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	20d	1	0.75mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	20d	1	0.82mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	0.90mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	1.00mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	20d	1	1.10mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	20d	1	1.12mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	21d	1	1.18mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	21d	1	1.21mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	20d	1	1.21mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	20d	1	1.22mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	20d	1	1.27mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	21d	1	1.28mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	20d	1	1.30mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	20d	1	1.32mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	20d	1	1.38mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	20d	10	1.49mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $324,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $324,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $324,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $324,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $334,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,697 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$2,028
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$2,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$499
• After-tax cash flow: $3,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $334,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,028 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.