4815 W Baxter Ct · Columbia, MO 65203

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 $200/sqft · 11% above area Est $315k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Truly a must see! This updated home includes tiled showers, tiled backsplash, trendy fixtures & ceiling fans, plus in walking distance to Longview park! Also enjoy the screened in porch, fenced backyard, lawn/storage shed, 2 inch white blinds, and convenient location.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Excellent location
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PARK
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 13850% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $172,935 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.57%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,348
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4708 Gillespie Bridge Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+8%)	7mo	$249,900	$166	72
2414 Grandview Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+2%)	8mo	$210,000	$148	71
2506 Grandview Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	4mo	$240,000	$190	68
4307 W Brookview Ter	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,380 (-1%)	12mo	$262,000	$190	58
1414 Pickford Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+5%)	0mo	$295,000	$202	57
4521 W Southview Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+0%)	12mo	$235,000	$168	56
1509 Waterford Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+9%)	1mo	$273,000	$180	52
4407 W Brookview Ter	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-12%)	4mo	$259,900	$213	51
4302 W Brookview Ter	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	20mo	$260,000	$181	48
2309 S Kendallwood Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-14%)	19mo	$210,000	$176	47
1410 S Pickford Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+13%)	1mo	$280,000	$178	43
4415 W South Pinebrook Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (+10%)	20mo	$275,000	$180	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-62,878
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-60,671
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65203

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,797/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,189

Max offer price $214,889

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-205	-5% $-284	+0% $-363	+5% $-442	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-500	-5% $-431	+0% $-363	+5% $-295	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-222	-0.5pp $-292	base $-363	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4512 Salem Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	22d	1	0.23mi
2007 Granite Oaks Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,300	$1.33	44d	1	0.32mi
4412 Cheryl Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,675	$1.20	22d	1	0.37mi
4401 W Jeana Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	44d	1	0.44mi
3283 S Brampton Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,475	$1.29	44d	1	0.54mi
3383 S Brampton Ln Columbia, MO	3.0	1.5	1076	$1,295	$1.20	44d	1	0.62mi
4200 Beach Pointe Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1781	$2,000	$1.12	44d	1	0.78mi
2011 Keystone Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,150	$1.28	22d	1	0.79mi
4323 W Bethany Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,250	$1.07	44d	1	0.81mi
1304 Essex Ct Unit A Columbia, MO	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,100	$0.88	44d	1	0.84mi
4103 W Bethany Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	44d	1	0.97mi
1204 S Louisville Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,925	$1.26	44d	1	1.02mi
4331 Ludwick Blvd Unit 4331 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.5	1100	$950	$0.86	44d	1	1.06mi
6002 W Swather Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,300	$1.43	14d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 255-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $279,000 Active 255-char remark
3. 2022-06-21
   soldstatus
4. 2017-07-03
   soldstatus
5. 2017-06-28
   soldstatus 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Truly a must see! This updated home includes tiled showers, tiled backsplash, trendy fixtures & ceiling fans, plus in walking distance to Longview park! Also enjoy the screened in porch, fenced backyard, lawn/storage shed, 2 inch white blinds, and convenient location.

6. 2017-05-21
   listed $169,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   Truly a must see! This updated home includes tiled showers, tiled backsplash, trendy fixtures & ceiling fans, plus in walking distance to Longview park! Also enjoy the screened in porch, fenced backyard, lawn/storage shed, 2 inch white blinds, and convenient location.

7. 2003-09-05
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   MN K, LR, DR, 3BR, 2B, UTR QUIET FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD CULDESAC BRAND NEW HEAT AC NEW APPLIANCES LARGE CLOSETS HUGE FENCED BACKYARD, CLEAN, `MOVE IN CONDITION`

8. 2003-05-01
   listed $104,900

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   MN K, LR, DR, 3BR, 2B, UTR QUIET FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD CULDESAC BRAND NEW HEAT AC NEW APPLIANCES LARGE CLOSETS HUGE FENCED BACKYARD, CLEAN, `MOVE IN CONDITION`

9. 2002-06-20
   soldstatus
10. 2002-05-04
    listed $102,900
11. 2001-07-27
    soldstatus
12. 2001-03-26
    listed $89,900
13. 1999-06-25
    soldstatus
14. 1999-04-20
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$909/yr (+$76/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,797
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$9,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 61,539
• Household income: $79,960
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1991.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.18%
• Current HPI: 194.3615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed for Rent $2,000 CBORMLS
• 2022-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-28 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2017-05-21 Listed $169,000 CBORMLS
• 2003-09-05 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2003-05-01 Listed $104,900 CBORMLS
• 2002-06-20 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2002-05-04 Listed $102,900 CBORMLS
• 2001-07-27 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2001-03-26 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS
• 1999-06-25 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 1999-04-20 Listed $89,900 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,797 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.