81 Aldrich Pl · Buffalo, NY 14220

$159,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1901 3,712 sqft lot Est $264k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

NICELY MAINTAINED 3/2 DOUBLE ON A WELL KEPT STREET. LOWER HAS UPDATD KITCHEN, BATH, FIRST LAUNDRY ROOM, LARGE LIVING ROOM, BIG BACK YARD. GOOD PROPERTY FOR OWNER OR INVESTOR. BOTH TENANTS ARE MONTH TO MONTH 24 hr notice for showings

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• Separate entrances
• 3,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• CASH FLOW OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• IMMEDIATE CASH FLOW POTENTIAL
• LOW MAINTENANCE CHARACTER HOME
• SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• ROOM FOR COSMETIC UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Multi-family property with 2 total units; Separate gas and electric meters for each unit; Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include water/sewer; One unit currently rented at $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story building; Resale property; Vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot with city street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 29 x 128

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One unit with 2 bedrooms; One unit with 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate and varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Full basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $159,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$264,096) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $867 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $434/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.38%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Mckinley Pkwy	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,110 (+5%)	9mo	$380,000	$180	69
140 Aldrich Pl	0.11mi	5/2.0	2,300 (+14%)	8mo	$260,000	$113	65
15 Arbour Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-8%)	7mo	$275,000	$148	55
1313 Mckinley Pkwy	0.30mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,304 (+14%)	9mo	$260,000	$113	50
55 Harding Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-8%)	9mo	$275,000	$149	49
16 Culver Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-11%)	8mo	$262,000	$146	47
128 Woodside Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (+4%)	21mo	$175,000	$83	39
74 Hansen Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,871 (-7%)	22mo	$200,000	$107	34
145 Whitehall Ave	0.59mi	5/2.0	2,276 (+13%)	21mo	$240,000	$105	33
442 Dorrance Ave	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,173 (+8%)	21mo	$340,000	$156	33
83 Ladner Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (-6%)	21mo	$175,000	$92	32
167 Hollywood Ave	0.74mi	5/2.0	2,291 (+14%)	15mo	$299,900	$131	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $40,671
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $157,138
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $957	-5% $912	+0% $867	+5% $822	+10% $777
Rent	-10% $684	-5% $776	+0% $867	+5% $959	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $947	-0.5pp $908	base $867	+0.5pp $826	+1.0pp $784

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$2,312
Total (2 units)			$2,313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 683-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$984/yr (+$82/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $8,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $8,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+297.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-05 Rental Removed $1,200 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,200 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-04-25 Listed for Rent $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-04-25 Rental Removed $1,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-25 Listed for Rent $1,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2021-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $871,428 Public Records
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-21 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2011-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-26 Sold (MLS) $525 WNYREIS
• 2009-10-12 Listed $525 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $720 · +52.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.