3715 Mission Valley Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1994 7,876 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful spacious home located in a desirable master planned neighborhood with golf course. Home features granite counter tops, undermount sink, an island in the kitchen. Wood, tiles, and laminate thru out except for the 3 bedrooms upstairs but has with built ins in 2 of them. Master down with great size closet, and huge game room up. Decent sized backyard with a storage shed, and so much more, too much to list. Schedule your showing today and make this your new home.

Key facts

• Great size closet
• Undermount sink
• Built ins

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• UNDERMOUNT SINK
• ISLAND IN THE KITCHEN
• WOOD TILES AND LAMINATE
• BUILT INS
• GREAT SIZE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,985 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,590
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: 4.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3607 Point Clear Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,467 (-4%)	0mo	$369,900	$150	81
2026 Point Clear Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,647 (+3%)	1mo	$325,000	$123	80
4014 S Sandy Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,367 (-8%)	0mo	$299,900	$127	74
3603 Point Clear Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,743 (+7%)	4mo	$345,000	$126	73
3815 Lamplighter Cir	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,343 (-9%)	4mo	$300,000	$128	71
4026 Greenbriar Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,689 (+4%)	0mo	$390,000	$145	70
3923 Kiamesha Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,589 (+1%)	2mo	$399,000	$154	70
2123 N Fountain Valley Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,750 (+7%)	2mo	$369,000	$134	66
3626 Telford Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,330 (-9%)	0mo	$365,000	$157	64
3951 Aspen Landing Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,645 (+3%)	1mo	$415,000	$157	60
3234 Cherry Springs Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,292 (-11%)	4mo	$238,500	$104	46
3534 Lake Landing Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,918 (+13%)	3mo	$409,900	$140	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-51,898
• Equity at exit: $61,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-76,304
• Equity at exit: $57,307

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$594 /mo · $7,132/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,914

Max offer price $257,985

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.30mi
2010 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2651	$2,695	$1.02	43d	1	0.52mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	17d	1	0.55mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	43d	1	0.55mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	43d	1	0.74mi
1714 Mustang Xing Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3065	$2,436	$0.79	43d	1	0.75mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	20d	1	0.80mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	16d	1	0.81mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	43d	1	1.13mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	1.15mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	20d	1	1.38mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-03-21
    listed $295,000 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Beautiful spacious home located in a desirable master planned neighborhood with golf course. Home features granite counter tops, undermount sink, an island in the kitchen. Wood, tiles, and laminate thru out except for the 3 bedrooms upstairs but has with built ins in 2 of them. Master down with great size closet, and huge game room up. Decent sized backyard with a storage shed, and so much more, too much to list. Schedule your showing today and make this your new home.

14. 2025-12-16
    historical
15. 2025-08-03
    listed $349,000 Active
16. 2024-04-29
    historical
17. 2023-11-01
    listed $349,000 Active
18. 2023-04-05
    historical
19. 2023-01-02
    listed $299,900 Active
20. 2022-12-05
    historical
21. 2022-09-19
    listed $325,000 Active
22. 2022-09-18
    historical
23. 2022-09-02
    price $349,000
24. 2022-07-07
    listed $359,000 Active
25. 2015-11-12
    historical
26. 2015-11-05
    price $219,900
27. 2015-10-20
    listed $225,000 Active
28. 2011-03-02
    historical
29. 2011-02-18
    listed $165,000
30. 2011-02-18
    historical
31. 2010-11-09
    listed $165,000
32. 2010-09-29
    soldstatus
33. 2010-09-28
    historical
34. 2010-04-22
    listed $117,000
35. 2006-11-07
    historical
36. 2006-06-23
    listed $179,900
37. 2000-07-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,132 · $594/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,132 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$7,132
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-02 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-07 Listed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-11-05 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2015-10-20 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2011-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-02-18 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2010-11-09 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2010-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-22 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2006-11-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-06-23 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2000-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,132 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.