213 Aquarius Dr Unit AQU213 · Shiloh, IL 62269

$19,600

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured · 109 Days on market

Built 2026

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, a clubhouse, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Basketball court
• Playground

Tags

• BASKETBALL COURT
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 71.8% vs local median 2.6% in Shiloh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#289 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $136 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $588 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,836 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 71.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 234.04%
• DSCR: 11.41
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.90×
• Total profit: $70,811
• Equity at exit: $2,922

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 32.92×
• Total profit: $175,162
• Equity at exit: $1,695

Cash invested: $5,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62269

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$103
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $294/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $171

Max offer price $19,600

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,084	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,064	+10% $1,057
Rent	-10% $950	-5% $1,010	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,131	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,080	-0.5pp $1,075	base $1,070	+0.5pp $1,065	+1.0pp $1,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,900
• Closing costs: $588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 N High St O Fallon, IL	1.0	1.0	720	$775	$1.08	2d	1	0.55mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	2.0	3.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	2d	1	1.44mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	1.44mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	2d	1	1.44mi
109 Sugar Pine Ln O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,095	$1.12	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $19,600 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $20,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $20,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $19,500 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-02-20
   listed $19,500 Active 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, a clubhouse, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,098
• − Property taxes: −$294
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − Depreciation: −$570
• Taxable income: $13,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,198
• After-tax cash flow: $9,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: O Fallon Twp Hsd 203
• NCES district ID: 1729790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $82,945
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5240
• State rank: #145 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shiloh

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #5560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shiloh, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 29,875
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,923
• Household income: $103,818
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.35%
• Current HPI: 177.759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $19,500 Zillow