16693 Heritage Pines Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$284,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,286 sqft lot $128/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Salerno plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, primary bedroom down, 3 baths, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, dedicated upstairs game room, and dedicated laundry room.

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Island kitchen
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• SMART HOME PACKAGE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TRAY CEILINGS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $259k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $259,340 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,990
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: 2.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16827 Country Roots Ave	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-3%)	1mo	$306,990	$141	84
15611 Country Charm Trl	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-7%)	1mo	$322,258	$155	80
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-9%)	0mo	$310,990	$153	74
14154 Granger Pointe	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+1%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	69
16763 Country Roots Ave	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+15%)	0mo	$336,990	$132	62
16823 Country Roots Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+15%)	2mo	$326,990	$128	62
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	49
14305 Grey Pointe	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	0mo	$269,790	$136	48
14300 Ash Tree Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+10%)	1mo	$324,900	$133	48
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-11%)	1mo	$264,640	$134	47
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (-9%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	46
14337 Ash Tree Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+10%)	1mo	$319,900	$131	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-29,636
• Equity at exit: $42,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,821
• Equity at exit: $24,641

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $284,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $343	+0% $245	+5% $146	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $131	+0% $245	+5% $358	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $317	base $245	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	2d	13	0.70mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,990 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $284,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $299,990 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    The Salerno plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, primary bedroom down, 3 baths, dining area, and 2-car garage. It features a convenient kitchen island with space for high-top seating, spacious walk-in closet, dedicated upstairs game room, and dedicated laundry room.

16. 2026-03-23
    price $299,990 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    ** NEW SECTION NOW OPEN! ** Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Salerno floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms (2 down, 2 up), 3 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring and a tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with an island kitchen open to expansive living and dining areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinetry, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator included, too! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2026-03-16
    listed $303,274 Active 963-char remark

    Show marketing remark (963 chars)

    ** NEW SECTION NOW OPEN! ** Love where you live in Granger Pines in Conroe, TX! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Design Collection! The Salerno floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms (2 down, 2 up), 3 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring and a tray ceilings for some dramatic flair! The first floor offers the perfect space for entertaining with an island kitchen open to expansive living and dining areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinetry, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator included, too! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with silestone countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with full sod, a sprinkler system, and a covered patio. Don’t miss your opportunity to call Granger Pines home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$1,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$398
• After-tax cash flow: $3,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2-story Salerno floor plan home in Granger Pines, TX, is in excellent condition with a spacious layout and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home package — enhances home automation and security
• Both Smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Smart lighting system — enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home package — enhances home automation and security ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $303,274 HARMLS