172 Gray Squirrel Ln · Newport, NC 28570

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2014 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a permanent foundation! Kitchen boasts beautiful dark cabinetry, all kitchen appliances, and center island with breakfast bar! Laundry room! The large master bedroom boasts walk in closet and bathroom! Enjoy the summers on the covered porch. Storage shed out back is perfect for lawn equipment!. Adjacent vacant Lot being sold with this property!

Key facts

• Cleared lot
• Three sheds
• Outdoor living

Tags

• CLEARED LOT
• THREE SHEDS
• SHE SHED
• OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One-level / single story; Entry level: 1; Has a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Partial fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($100k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.1% vs local median 31.4% in Newport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,669/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $280k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.75%
• DSCR: 6.68
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,358
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Gray Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+6%)	19mo	$164,000	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $486,215
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.13×
• Total profit: $1,107,957
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,661
• Net cashflow: $8,346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,104

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    listed $280,000 Active
17. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus $125,000 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    3 bed 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a permanent foundation! Kitchen boasts beautiful dark cabinetry, all kitchen appliances, and center island with breakfast bar! Laundry room! The large master bedroom boasts walk in closet and bathroom! Enjoy the summers on the covered porch. Storage shed out back is perfect for lawn equipment!. Adjacent vacant Lot being sold with this property!

18. 2021-08-30
    listed $124,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    3 bed 2 bath manufactured home sitting on a permanent foundation! Kitchen boasts beautiful dark cabinetry, all kitchen appliances, and center island with breakfast bar! Laundry room! The large master bedroom boasts walk in closet and bathroom! Enjoy the summers on the covered porch. Storage shed out back is perfect for lawn equipment!. Adjacent vacant Lot being sold with this property!

19. 2018-07-31
    historical
20. 2018-01-31
    listed $124,900
21. 2004-12-10
    soldstatus $32,000
22. 2004-06-22
    listed $57,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,366/yr (+$114/mo · 146.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $152,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,162
• − Management: −$12,162
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $101,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,371
• After-tax cash flow: $75,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Newport

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #15094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+384.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $280,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-08-30 Listed $124,900 Hive MLS
• 2018-07-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2018-01-31 Listed $124,900 Hive MLS
• 2004-12-10 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Hive MLS
• 2004-06-22 Listed $57,800 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · +51.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.