35 Gardners Ln · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,599,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition 0.44 ac lot 2-car garage $623/sqft · 21% below area Est $2.032M · 21% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Presenting a rare investment opportunity in Hampton Bays, this waterfront multifamily compound offers direct Shinnecock Bay views on Penny Pond with 80 feet of frontage, a 40-foot dock, and sandy beach access. Situated on 0.44 acres, the property features multiple income-producing structures, including a two-bedroom, two-bath main house with cathedral ceilings, a gourmet kitchen, and a living room with a fireplace. The asset also includes a two-bedroom cottage and a one-bedroom studio located above a detached two-car garage, with several units separately metered to provide flexibility for year-round rental income.

Key facts

• Private dock
• Upper-level studio
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DOCK
• THREE INDEPENDENT BUILDINGS
• DIRECT BOATING ACCESS
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• UPPER-LEVEL STUDIO
• EXPANSIVE WATERFRONT DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-59k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $735k (54.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $720k (55.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $720k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 5.9% in Hampton Bays — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,198/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $176k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $719,774 (55.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.97%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,031,815
• List price: $1,599,000
• Delta: -21.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Mineola Ct	1.04mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,550 (-1%)	14mo	$2,250,000	$882	41
1 Lynnwood Ct	1.31mi	3/4.5 (+1)	2,400 (-6%)	3mo	$1,253,420	$522	37
10 Robertson Ln	0.61mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,275 (-11%)	16mo	$975,000	$429	28
75 Lynncliff Rd	1.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,232 (-13%)	13mo	$890,000	$399	27
1 Ludlow Ln	0.80mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,323 (-10%)	24mo	$885,000	$381	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-532,776
• Equity at exit: $238,416

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-692,682
• Equity at exit: $138,252

Cash invested: $447,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,495,000 ($714/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax from tax record: −$1,099 /mo · $13,192/yr
• Insurance: −$666
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,512
• Net cashflow: $-4,891

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,389

Max offer price $734,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,986	-5% $-4,439	+0% $-4,891	+5% $-5,344	+10% $-5,796
Rent	-10% $-5,460	-5% $-5,176	+0% $-4,891	+5% $-4,607	+10% $-4,323
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,086	-0.5pp $-4,485	base $-4,891	+0.5pp $-5,306	+1.0pp $-5,727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $399,750
• Closing costs: $47,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Shinnecock Rd Unit 3 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	1760	$19,500	$11.08	10d	1	0.23mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	165d	1	0.43mi
3 Harbor Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2500	$6,750	$2.70	36d	1	0.57mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$20,000	$7.65	10d	1	0.65mi
1A Gerald Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2200	$12,000	$5.45	10d	1	1.12mi
129 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$6,000	$3.00	94d	1	1.47mi
85 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1878	$4,500	$2.40	37d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parkingParking lot2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residenceFull attic
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: DockGardenGarage(s)Guest houseOutbuildingResidence

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathBeamed ceilingsBuilt-in featuresEat-in kitchenOriginal detailsPrimary bathroom

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $1,599,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $1,599,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $1,699,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $1,699,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $1,699,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $1,699,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 82 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 81 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 80 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 79 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 78 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 77 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 75 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 74 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 73 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 72 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 71 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 70 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 65 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 64 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 63 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $1,699,000 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,192 · $1,099/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,108 · $1,676/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,916/yr (+$576/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,569
• − Property taxes: −$13,192
• − Insurance: −$13,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,910
• − Management: −$6,910
• − Depreciation: −$46,516
• Taxable loss: −$89,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-37,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,840–$38,520 screening

This waterfront property offers a good investment opportunity with a good condition and minimal repairs needed. The exterior could benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parkingParking lot2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residenceFull attic
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: DockGardenGarage(s)Guest houseOutbuildingResidence

Interior

• Kitchen: OvenRangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathBeamed ceilingsBuilt-in featuresEat-in kitchenOriginal detailsPrimary bathroom

Price history

+115.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-15 Listed $1,775,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $1,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Listed $1,749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Listed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,450,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-02 Sold (MLS) $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-05 Price Changed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $825,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $13,192 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.