953 Francis Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28306

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $104k · 20% over ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute home in secluded area yet close to everything. Great investment opportunity. Home has been a rental since 2012. Home located down private road. nestled in the middle of Fayetteville and Hope Mills. HVAC 2019 HOT water heater 2026

Key facts

• Secluded area
• Private road
• Built 1950

Tags

• SECLUDED AREA
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• PRIVATE ROAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Spring water source; Well water source; Holding tank sewer; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Fayetteville subdivision; Zoned R10 (Residential District)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Natural gas heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; No fireplace; 5 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 401 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.85%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,740
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2238 Sharon St	0.72mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	1mo	$102,000	$133	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,154
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,182
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28306

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $603/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,043

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $285	+0% $250	+5% $215	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $196	+0% $250	+5% $304	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $282	base $250	+0.5pp $218	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3100 Winesap Rd Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,495	$1.38	14d	1	0.29mi
575 Countrytown Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	24d	1	0.60mi
3918 Donna St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	0.74mi
405 Grand Wailea Dr Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,426	$1.34	24d	9	0.79mi
408 Sheila St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,150	$1.08	24d	1	0.96mi
2621 Elcone Dr Unit 2621 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	815	$999	$1.23	14d	1	1.01mi
614 Drypoint Ln Apt B Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	24d	1	1.13mi
1055 Winnall LN Hope Mills, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,762	$1.56	14d	20	1.43mi
126 Oak St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.44mi
122 Oak St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.44mi
29 Briar Cir Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	765	$1,283	$1.68	14d	36	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $125,000
3. 2026-03-11
   price $135,000
4. 2026-01-14
   price $155,000
5. 2025-10-07
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $603 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$603
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,042
• Household income: $67,544
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1386.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.69%
• Current HPI: 239.7281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $135,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $155,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $185,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $603 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.