15918 Marcello Cir #239 · Naples, FL 34110

$395,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Condo public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2005 $516/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

C6629 - Updated Townhome in Milano of North Naples with Kitchen that features: Newer Stainless Steel Appliances and Sink, New Quartz Countertops, and Under-Cabinet LED Lighting. Home upgrades include; Large and Efficient Lennox HVAC with Digital Thermostats, Neutral Paint, Beautiful Lighting, a Ring Doorbell and Digital Keypad Front Entry. Enjoy the convenience of your Private Attached Garage, and calming water views from your Great Room, Lanai and Master Bedroom. Play tennis, or basketball and indulge yourself in your Community Pool and Spa.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Lake views
• Screened lanai

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SCREENED LANAI
• SHELLSTONE FLOORING
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee of $1,548 (total annual recurring fees $6,192); One-time fees $1,000; Condo management; HOA maintenance covers cable, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, and reserves; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, tennis and basketball courts, dog park, play area, bike and jog paths, and BBQ/picnic areas; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Assigned covered parking; Paved driveway; Under-building closed parking
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; 2 story; Rear exposure facing south; Residential property in MILANO community
• Construction: Built in 2005; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Double-hung and sliding windows; Manual shutters for storm protection; Regular lot (lot unit 239)
• Exterior features: Patio; Lake view; Lake frontage/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Cooktop (electric); Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom upstairs; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Great room; Guest bath; Guest room; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Auto garage door opener; Smoke detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $395k).
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,605/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $11,052
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $64,630
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$516
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,177
• Net cashflow: $1,433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,792

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,656	-5% $1,544	+0% $1,433	+5% $1,321	+10% $1,209
Rent	-10% $990	-5% $1,211	+0% $1,433	+5% $1,654	+10% $1,875
Rate	-1.0pp $1,631	-0.5pp $1,533	base $1,433	+0.5pp $1,330	+1.0pp $1,226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16097 Ravina Way #36 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,395	$1.52	21d	1	0.28mi
6522 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$4,500	$2.21	24d	1	0.46mi
6478 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1711	$10,000	$5.84	24d	1	0.49mi
16208 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$12,500	$6.25	24d	1	0.60mi
250 Willowick Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$3,500	$2.38	24d	1	0.60mi
16188 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$5,500	$2.79	24d	1	0.62mi
5870 3 Iron Dr Unit 4-401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$8,000	$4.90	24d	1	0.66mi
5630 Sherborn Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2005	$7,500	$3.74	24d	1	0.67mi
208 Erie Dr Unit 1355591P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1754	$5,550	$3.16	14d	1	0.68mi
5963 Trophy Dr #2002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	24d	1	0.68mi
6017 Trophy Dr #601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	24d	1	0.69mi
6029 Trophy Dr #301 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$6,000	$2.78	24d	1	0.73mi
5885 Three Iron Dr #1102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$7,000	$4.29	24d	1	0.73mi
5892 Three Iron Dr #1504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$7,000	$3.90	24d	1	0.77mi
5455 Worthington Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	24d	1	0.77mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	24d	1	0.77mi
5967 Sand Wedge Ln #106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,875	$1.87	24d	1	0.79mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	24d	1	0.81mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	21d	1	0.81mi
16432 Aberdeen Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.82mi
5886 Paradise Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1922	$6,800	$3.54	24d	1	0.82mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	24d	1	0.82mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,500	$4.40	24d	1	0.83mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$5,750	$3.86	24d	1	0.83mi
16210 Allura Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,570	$3.31	14d	18	0.83mi
5945 Sand Wedge Ln #1003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,000	$4.03	24d	1	0.85mi
5765 Grande Reserve Way Unit 7-702 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	24d	1	0.85mi
5941 Sand Wedge Ln #1206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$3,450	$2.24	24d	1	0.86mi
5937 Sand Wedge Ln #1507 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$6,500	$4.22	24d	1	0.87mi
5944 Sand Wedge Ln #1108 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,250	$4.23	24d	1	0.88mi
5923 Sand Wedge Ln #1906 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,695	$1.75	21d	1	0.90mi
5940 Sand Wedge Ln #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$5,500	$3.57	24d	1	0.90mi
6000 Pinnacle Ln #2503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2150	$5,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.94mi
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	21d	1	0.94mi
5928 Sand Wedge Ln #1805 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,500	$4.40	24d	1	0.94mi
5928 Sand Wedge Ln #1808 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,000	$4.06	24d	1	0.94mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	24d	1	0.94mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	24d	1	0.96mi
6015 Pinnacle Ln Unit 5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2150	$7,500	$3.49	24d	1	0.97mi
5705 Heron Ln #806 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$7,000	$4.55	24d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $516 · $6,192/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-01-26
   listed $395,000 Active
2. 2022-08-19
   soldstatus $410,000 Sold 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   C6629 - Updated Townhome in Milano of North Naples with Kitchen that features: Newer Stainless Steel Appliances and Sink, New Quartz Countertops, and Under-Cabinet LED Lighting. Home upgrades include; Large and Efficient Lennox HVAC with Digital Thermostats, Neutral Paint, Beautiful Lighting, a Ring Doorbell and Digital Keypad Front Entry. Enjoy the convenience of your Private Attached Garage, and calming water views from your Great Room, Lanai and Master Bedroom. Play tennis, or basketball and indulge yourself in your Community Pool and Spa.

3. 2022-08-15
   status Pending 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   C6629 - Updated Townhome in Milano of North Naples with Kitchen that features: Newer Stainless Steel Appliances and Sink, New Quartz Countertops, and Under-Cabinet LED Lighting. Home upgrades include; Large and Efficient Lennox HVAC with Digital Thermostats, Neutral Paint, Beautiful Lighting, a Ring Doorbell and Digital Keypad Front Entry. Enjoy the convenience of your Private Attached Garage, and calming water views from your Great Room, Lanai and Master Bedroom. Play tennis, or basketball and indulge yourself in your Community Pool and Spa.

4. 2022-07-26
   status Pending With Contingencies 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   C6629 - Updated Townhome in Milano of North Naples with Kitchen that features: Newer Stainless Steel Appliances and Sink, New Quartz Countertops, and Under-Cabinet LED Lighting. Home upgrades include; Large and Efficient Lennox HVAC with Digital Thermostats, Neutral Paint, Beautiful Lighting, a Ring Doorbell and Digital Keypad Front Entry. Enjoy the convenience of your Private Attached Garage, and calming water views from your Great Room, Lanai and Master Bedroom. Play tennis, or basketball and indulge yourself in your Community Pool and Spa.

5. 2022-07-22
   listed $400,000 Active 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   C6629 - Updated Townhome in Milano of North Naples with Kitchen that features: Newer Stainless Steel Appliances and Sink, New Quartz Countertops, and Under-Cabinet LED Lighting. Home upgrades include; Large and Efficient Lennox HVAC with Digital Thermostats, Neutral Paint, Beautiful Lighting, a Ring Doorbell and Digital Keypad Front Entry. Enjoy the convenience of your Private Attached Garage, and calming water views from your Great Room, Lanai and Master Bedroom. Play tennis, or basketball and indulge yourself in your Community Pool and Spa.

6. 2021-07-12
   soldstatus $280,000
7. 2019-12-26
   soldstatus $225,000
8. 2019-10-30
   price $229,000
9. 2019-09-09
   price $239,000
10. 2015-12-16
    soldstatus $235,000
11. 2015-12-15
    price $235,000
12. 2015-12-11
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
13. 2015-11-13
    price $239,000
14. 2015-11-13
    historical
15. 2015-11-10
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,278 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,381
• − Management: −$5,381
• − HOA: −$6,192
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable income: $11,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,830
• After-tax cash flow: $14,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $395,000 BEARMLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $410,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-08-15 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-07-26 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listed $400,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-30 Price Changed $229,000 BEARMLS
• 2019-09-09 Price Changed $239,000 BEARMLS
• 2015-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-15 Price Changed $235,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-12-11 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-11-13 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2015-11-13 Price Changed $239,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-11-10 Listed $239,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,924 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.