1450 W Kaibab Ln #190 · Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $110k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to your well kept 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with a brand new fence, forest views, mature landscaping and a shed for storage. The property also has a gas stove, double sink, ceiling fans, ample parking and a spacious living room. Washer, dryer and fridge convey! Home has had one owner and has been lightly lived in. It is perfect for a starter home or an investment! No short term rentals allowed.

Key facts

• High quality windows
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• HIGH QUALITY WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• UPGRADED KITCHEN FEATURES
• EXPANDED CLOSET STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Westglen Mobile Home Park; Located on a land lease

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single wide manufactured home
• Construction: Year built: reported by owner
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Paved road access; Private and public maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Breakfast bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $748 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 280 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.93%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 W Kaibab Ln #147	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	6mo	$85,000	$82	88
1450 W Kaibab Ln #125	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+5%)	19mo	$94,000	$86	76
1450 W Kaibab Ln #91	0.00mi	2/2.0	952 (-8%)	16mo	$80,000	$84	73
1450 W Kaibab Ln #70	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	9mo	$117,000	$102	70
1460 W Kaibab Ln #111	0.09mi	2/2.0	992 (-5%)	22mo	$112,000	$113	70
1450 W Kaibab Ln Lot 157	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	937 (-10%)	5mo	$124,500	$133	68
1450 W Kaibab Ln #79	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (-9%)	22mo	$89,000	$94	67
1658 W Sherrie Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	22mo	$385,000	$365	66
1450 W Kaibab Ln #62	0.15mi	2/2.0	896 (-14%)	9mo	$95,000	$106	62
1450 W Kaibab Ln #110	0.00mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	18mo	$57,000	$64	58
2412 W Rio Grande Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+14%)	7mo	$399,000	$336	33
1455 S Union Pacific St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,134 (+9%)	17mo	$435,000	$384	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $22,357
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $61,149
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86001

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $748

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1580 S Plaza Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,455	$2.81	44d	12	0.34mi
1515 S Yale St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,740	$2.02	44d	6	0.41mi
700 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,735	$2.57	44d	1	0.44mi
923 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,304	$2.63	44d	36	0.49mi
1385 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	906	$1,725	$1.90	44d	3	0.50mi
1000 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	947	$1,925	$2.03	44d	1	0.52mi
813 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	567	$1,840	$3.25	44d	1	0.53mi
800 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,548	$3.01	44d	32	0.66mi
927 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,806	$2.93	44d	11	0.67mi
1830 S Milton Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$2,129	$3.06	44d	23	0.84mi
600 W University Heights Dr N Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,254	$2.94	44d	4	1.15mi
3200 S Litzler Dr Unit 9-236 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	776	$1,800	$2.32	44d	1	1.25mi
2701 S Woody Mountain Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$2,642	$2.45	44d	77	1.27mi
319 N Park St Unit G Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	44d	1	1.33mi
605 S Lone Tree Rd Unit 4 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	756	$1,650	$2.18	44d	1	1.36mi
201 S Elden St Unit 10 Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$2,099	$2.62	44d	1	1.38mi
2292 S Alvan Clark Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,473	$1.51	44d	12	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 666-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $7,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,312
• Household income: $64,626
• Rent vs Own: 63.2% rent · 36.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3117.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 15% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.37%
• Current HPI: 393.2551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $125,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-06-17 Sold (MLS) $100,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $100,000 NAZMLS