67 Bowe Ln · Chelsea Cove, NY 12540

$649,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1999 1.49 ac lot $186/sqft · 18% below area Est $796k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do not miss the opportunity to move into Birch Hill neighborhood! This oversized Contemporary Colonial offers 3500 square feet of living space and sits on more than an acre of property. The home has four bedrooms (with additional 5th room), three separate living/family rooms, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen—providing plenty of room for both everyday living and entertaining all set on over an acre of property on a quiet, tree-lined street. The walkout unfinished basement boasts high ceilings and offers incredible potential for future expansion, whether you envision a playroom, gym, recreation space or home office. This private, serene setting, combined with your vision and creativity, makes the possibilities of the house endless. Perfect for someone looking for a house in move-in condition with the potential to customize and make it your own. This is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• 1.49 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-536/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $642k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $600k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $307k; list at $650k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $600,000 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $795,971
• List price: $649,999
• Delta: -18.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Rosell Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	3,112 (-11%)	5mo	$689,000	$221	60
189 Reilly Rd	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,122 (-11%)	6mo	$675,000	$216	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-107,902
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-96,523
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12540

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,105 /mo · $13,262/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,057

Max offer price $642,110

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Ohare Dr Lagrangeville, NY	4.0	3.5	2480	$6,000	$2.42	43d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Do not miss the opportunity to move into Birch Hill neighborhood! This oversized Contemporary Colonial offers 3500 square feet of living space and sits on more than an acre of property. The home has four bedrooms (with additional 5th room), three separate living/family rooms, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen—providing plenty of room for both everyday living and entertaining all set on over an acre of property on a quiet, tree-lined street. The walkout unfinished basement boasts high ceilings and offers incredible potential for future expansion, whether you envision a playroom, gym, recreation space or home office. This private, serene setting, combined with your vision and creativity, makes the possibilities of the house endless. Perfect for someone looking for a house in move-in condition with the potential to customize and make it your own. This is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $649,999 Active 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Do not miss the opportunity to move into Birch Hill neighborhood! This oversized Contemporary Colonial offers 3500 square feet of living space and sits on more than an acre of property. The home has four bedrooms (with additional 5th room), three separate living/family rooms, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen—providing plenty of room for both everyday living and entertaining all set on over an acre of property on a quiet, tree-lined street. The walkout unfinished basement boasts high ceilings and offers incredible potential for future expansion, whether you envision a playroom, gym, recreation space or home office. This private, serene setting, combined with your vision and creativity, makes the possibilities of the house endless. Perfect for someone looking for a house in move-in condition with the potential to customize and make it your own. This is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

3. 2026-03-09
   historical $649,999 925-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   Do not miss the opportunity to move into Birch Hill neighborhood! This oversized Contemporary Colonial offers 3500 square feet of living space and sits on more than an acre of property. The home has four bedrooms (with additional 5th room), three separate living/family rooms, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen—providing plenty of room for both everyday living and entertaining all set on over an acre of property on a quiet, tree-lined street. The walkout unfinished basement boasts high ceilings and offers incredible potential for future expansion, whether you envision a playroom, gym, recreation space or home office. This private, serene setting, combined with your vision and creativity, makes the possibilities of the house endless. Perfect for someone looking for a house in move-in condition with the potential to customize and make it your own. This is an opportunity you won’t want to miss!

4. 1999-09-20
   soldstatus $306,520
5. 1990-12-12
   soldstatus $1,900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,262 · $1,105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,262 · $1,105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$13,262
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,724
• After-tax cash flow: $2,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,314

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.96%
• Current HPI: 227.957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-65.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $649,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Coming Soon $649,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $306,520 Public Records
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $1,900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,262 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.