4431 Brook Hollow Cir · Winter Springs, FL 32708

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · Townhouse public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1989 2,000 sqft lot Est $272k · 19% under $512/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 4431 Brook Hollow Circle, where clean design meets comfortable living. This light-filled residence offers an open, airy layout that feels both spacious and welcoming, with neutral finishes that create a fresh, move-in-ready atmosphere. The living and dining areas flow seamlessly, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. One of the home’s standout features is the enclosed back porch, providing a versatile extension of the living space—perfect for morning coffee and relaxing evenings. The porch overlooks a peaceful outdoor area, offering privacy and a sense of calm rarely found. is ideal for those seeking a clean, uncluttered space that feels comfort

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Scenic lake views
• $512 HOA

Tags

• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• PEACEFUL OUTDOOR AREA
• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: 0 to less than 1/4 acre; Lot surface: Asphalt road; Lot size approximately 0.05 acres
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA: Deer Run HOA; Monthly HOA fee $275 (plus additional monthly maintenance $237); Community pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; Faces east; Entry level information not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Foundation: Other; Built area: 1,367 square feet
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (13.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Winter Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#261 in FL, #4,187 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,374 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,033
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4467 Brook Hollow Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-2%)	1mo	$255,000	$190	92
552 Shadow Glenn Pl	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,359 (-1%)	2mo	$260,000	$191	82
4249 E Weeping Willow Cir	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,348 (-1%)	14mo	$287,500	$213	77
537 Shadow Glenn Pl	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,359 (-1%)	16mo	$285,870	$210	76
505 Shadow Glenn Pl	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,359 (-1%)	14mo	$210,000	$155	74
576 Shadow Glenn Pl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,343 (-2%)	16mo	$260,000	$194	73
190 Post Way	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,260 (-8%)	11mo	$277,000	$220	54
237 S Wilderness Pt	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,260 (-8%)	8mo	$230,000	$183	43
4045 Crossroads Pl	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-15%)	12mo	$249,000	$214	41
4060 E Maryland Pl	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-15%)	12mo	$253,000	$217	40
4008 Crossroads Pl	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,166 (-15%)	13mo	$232,500	$199	36
205 S Wilderness Pt	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,166 (-15%)	6mo	$228,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,618
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-45,526
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32708

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,101/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$512
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $190,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-105	+0% $-168	+5% $-230	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-260	+0% $-168	+5% $-75	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-112	base $-168	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
541 Moccasin Ct Casselberry, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$2,095	$1.73	24d	1	0.36mi
3747 Okeechobee Cir Casselberry, FL	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,600	$1.63	24d	1	0.40mi
990 English Town Ln Winter Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,559	$2.58	3d	15	0.71mi
1020 Chatham Pines Cir Winter Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,121	$2.45	2d	12	0.88mi
1445 Bird Rd Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	1.03mi
1013 Taproot Dr Winter Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,565	$1.45	24d	1	1.22mi
1239 La Mesa Ave Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,079	$1.66	3d	1	1.39mi
1448 La Paloma Cir Winter Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,120	$1.51	21d	1	1.44mi
986 Rollingwood Loop Casselberry, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	669	$1,880	$2.81	24d	15	1.47mi
2982 Embassy Ct Casselberry, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,895	$1.53	2d	1	1.49mi
2982 Embassy Ct Casselberry, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,895	$1.53	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $512 · $6,144/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $220,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $230,000
16. 2026-03-10
    price $240,000
17. 2026-02-18
    price $250,000
18. 2026-01-15
    listed $260,000 Active
19. 2025-01-20
    historical $1,849
20. 2024-12-20
    listed $1,849
21. 2024-01-20
    historical $1,850
22. 2024-01-13
    listed $1,850
23. 2024-01-12
    historical $1,850
24. 2024-01-11
    listed $1,850
25. 2019-01-04
    soldstatus $165,000
26. 2000-08-10
    soldstatus $81,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,101
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − HOA: −$6,144
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #4187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 48,965
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,965
• Household income: $93,628
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1023.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.76%
• Current HPI: 308.2797
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+182.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Rental Removed $1,849 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-20 Listed for Rent $1,849 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-20 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-12 Rental Removed $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed for Rent $1,850 STELLARMLS
• 2019-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,101 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.