5839 Winacre Dr · Nedrow, NY 13084

$250,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1960 0.34 ac lot $140/sqft · 15% below area Est $294k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

5839 Winacre Dr, LaFayette, NY 13084 Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath ranch located in the heart of LaFayette—offering comfort, convenience, and major recent updates throughout. This spacious 1,788 sq/ft home features a functional single-level layout with a warm and inviting living area centered around a cozy fireplace, perfect for Upstate New York winters. The home has been thoughtfully updated, including fresh paint within the last 5 years, creating a clean and move-in ready feel. Step outside and enjoy your brand new Trex deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing while overlooking the backyard with direct views of the LaFayette sports fields—a rare and de

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Generous lot
• New trex deck

Tags

• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW TREX DECK
• DIRECT VIEWS OF SPORTS FIELDS
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Underground parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Well water; Water heater (gas)
• Home design: Single-story existing home; Wood siding construction; Resale property
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 100 x 150)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Water heater (gas)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Varied flooring in some areas
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Main level bathroom present
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Home office; Workshop; Additional versatile spaces (other/see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#415 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lafayette Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #351 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C Grant Grimshaw School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 327 students, 46% FRL); La Fayette Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 324 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $161,428 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,212
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -15.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2890 Route 11	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,617 (-10%)	10mo	$106,500	$66	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $52,312
• Equity at exit: $167,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $175,069
• Equity at exit: $313,669

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13084

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,938/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,207

Max offer price $167,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-327	-5% $-397	+0% $-468	+5% $-539	+10% $-610
Rent	-10% $-596	-5% $-532	+0% $-468	+5% $-404	+10% $-341
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-405	base $-468	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1310-char remark
2. 2026-05-03
   historical Active Under Contract 1310-char remark
3. 2026-04-25
   listed $250,000 Active 1310-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,938 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,082 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,938
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616410
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 22.00%
• Median HH income: $63,210
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2809
• State rank: #351 of 590 in NY

Livability — Nedrow

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #7218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,764

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.66%
• Current HPI: 312.478
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $250,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,938 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.