20 Kingsbury St · Jamestown, NY 14701

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1910 5,000 sqft lot $36/sqft · 47% below area Est $85k · 47% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A 3 bedroom, 1 bath, single family home with many newer vinyl replacement windows, vinyl siding & off street parking. Home needs some TLC. Solid purchase for income or owner occupancy. Currently tenant occupied.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Vinyl siding
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING
• OFF STREET PARKING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $45,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$85,413) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.59%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,413
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -47.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1240 Prendergast Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+2%)	10mo	$75,000	$59	80
115 Wilson Pl	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+7%)	3mo	$119,000	$89	78
616 Cherry St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,294 (+3%)	10mo	$81,500	$63	60
14 Sumner Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-11%)	1mo	$50,000	$44	59
174 Sturges St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-9%)	5mo	$123,000	$107	59
262 Towner Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-3%)	9mo	$225,000	$184	56
504 W 8th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-3%)	4mo	$45,000	$37	55
193 Bowen St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,402 (+11%)	5mo	$61,500	$44	55
162 Sturges St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-10%)	10mo	$93,500	$82	50
316 W 7th St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,374 (+9%)	7mo	$30,500	$22	46
321 Weeks St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+9%)	9mo	$151,000	$110	42
18 Weeks St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (+12%)	11mo	$65,000	$46	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $23,249
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $59,713
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $466

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Spring St Jamestown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	0.09mi
317 Fairmount Ave Unit G-1 Jamestown, NY	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,295	$1.07	43d	1	1.32mi
148 Maple St Jamestown, NY	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,350	$0.95	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $45,000 Active 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    A 3 bedroom, 1 bath, single family home with many newer vinyl replacement windows, vinyl siding & off street parking. Home needs some TLC. Solid purchase for income or owner occupancy. Currently tenant occupied.

17. 2025-12-05
    historical
18. 2025-09-07
    price $45,000
19. 2024-12-06
    listed $55,000 Active
20. 2024-09-30
    historical
21. 2024-03-22
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $4,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jamestown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615630
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,240
• Composite: 30.69/100
• National rank: #6176
• State rank: #553 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #8213

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, NY
• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $45,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $55,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-03-22 Listed $55,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,360 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.