3817 Lahaina Ln · Modesto, CA 95355

$86,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering approximately 1,248 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Located in a quiet, well-maintained 55+ senior living park in Modesto. This home combines convenience, comfort, and style. The park offers a swimming pool, hot tub, clubhouse, shuffleboard, and much more. Inside, you'll find an open and inviting floor plan with generous living areas, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The updated interior features modern finishes, a bright kitchen with ample storage, and well-appointed bedrooms including a primary suite with its own private bathroom. Enjoy peaceful living in a serene community setting

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Hot tub
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Modesto, CA 95355
• Financial info: Land lease required (monthly land lease amount listed)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Public sewer; Water from public district; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Built in 1979
• Construction: Metal skirting; Shingle/composition roof; Howard Manor make
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Fence; Front landscaping and garden; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Double oven; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Covered patio and porch; Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Laminate countertops; Storage area; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,293 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.45%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,608
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3908 Waimea Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$57,000	$46	89
3908 Moana Way	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	5mo	$65,000	$52	86
3816 Moana Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$77,000	$57	77
3833 Surfside Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	1mo	$99,900	$71	73
3817 Moana Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$77,500	$67	73
3905 Moana Way #33	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (-1%)	18mo	$108,000	$87	69
3933 Lahaina Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	14mo	$55,000	$41	69
3904 Surfside Dr #73	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	15mo	$112,000	$83	68
3820 Surfside Dr #140	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	9mo	$105,000	$75	66
3805 Moana Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,420 (+14%)	21mo	$110,300	$78	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $43,864
• Equity at exit: $12,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $103,885
• Equity at exit: $7,514

Cash invested: $24,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $86,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,725
• Closing costs: $2,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	0.63mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	21d	1	0.64mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	0.72mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	14d	1	0.72mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	14d	1	0.90mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	14d	1	0.90mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	14d	1	0.91mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	14d	2	1.15mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	23d	1	1.18mi
2405 Vera Cruz Dr Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,675	$1.82	14d	1	1.26mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	1.34mi
2100 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,740	$1.96	14d	10	1.45mi
1915 Celeste Ct Unit CE1915-B Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,525	$2.02	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $86,900 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $86,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $86,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $86,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $86,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $86,900 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,868
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$2,528
• Taxable income: $10,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,593
• After-tax cash flow: $8,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B