43 Crystal Ln · Lyndon, VT 05851

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $114/sqft · 43% above area Est $93k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is an excellent opportunity for those seeking comfortable, simplified living. This beautifully maintained 2021 Redman manufactured home offers quality 2x6 construction and a thoughtfully designed 28' x 44' layout with an open floor plan and generous room sizes throughout. Gently lived in, the home presents a bright, modern interior that feels both comfortable and elevated. Situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac within Riverview Estates, the property enjoys a generous surrounding green space as well as an attached carport providing convenient covered parking. Located just outside of town, enjoy the close proximity to local amenities, schools and the abundant recreational opportunities the NEK is known for. Lot rent is $398 per month.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached carport
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• 2021 REDMAN MANUFACTURED HOME
• 2X6 CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $679 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.22%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,000
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 39.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $114,006
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $301,807
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,371/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $129,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active with Contract 117 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    status Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Here is an excellent opportunity for those seeking comfortable, simplified living. This beautifully maintained 2021 Redman manufactured home offers quality 2x6 construction and a thoughtfully designed 28' x 44' layout with an open floor plan and generous room sizes throughout. Gently lived in, the home presents a bright, modern interior that feels both comfortable and elevated. Situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac within Riverview Estates, the property enjoys a generous surrounding green space as well as an attached carport providing convenient covered parking. Located just outside of town, enjoy the close proximity to local amenities, schools and the abundant recreational opportunities the NEK is known for. Lot rent is $398 per month.

17. 2026-04-12
    historical Active with Contract 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Here is an excellent opportunity for those seeking comfortable, simplified living. This beautifully maintained 2021 Redman manufactured home offers quality 2x6 construction and a thoughtfully designed 28' x 44' layout with an open floor plan and generous room sizes throughout. Gently lived in, the home presents a bright, modern interior that feels both comfortable and elevated. Situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac within Riverview Estates, the property enjoys a generous surrounding green space as well as an attached carport providing convenient covered parking. Located just outside of town, enjoy the close proximity to local amenities, schools and the abundant recreational opportunities the NEK is known for. Lot rent is $398 per month.

18. 2026-02-03
    listed $129,900 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Here is an excellent opportunity for those seeking comfortable, simplified living. This beautifully maintained 2021 Redman manufactured home offers quality 2x6 construction and a thoughtfully designed 28' x 44' layout with an open floor plan and generous room sizes throughout. Gently lived in, the home presents a bright, modern interior that feels both comfortable and elevated. Situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac within Riverview Estates, the property enjoys a generous surrounding green space as well as an attached carport providing convenient covered parking. Located just outside of town, enjoy the close proximity to local amenities, schools and the abundant recreational opportunities the NEK is known for. Lot rent is $398 per month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,919 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$549/yr (+$46/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,371
• − Insurance: −$1,316
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $6,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $6,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 Redman manufactured home offers a good condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It is located in a quiet cul-de-sac with a generous surrounding green space and an attached carport. The home is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $129,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,371 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.