7701 Sherwood Blvd · Los Molinos, CA 96055

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1993 6,534 sqft lot $160/sqft · 84% above area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS 3 BED 2 BATH HOME ON CORNER LOT IN LOS MOLINOS. HOME HAS NEWER FLOORING, LARGE LIVING ROOM, MASTER BEDROOM, WALK IN CLOSET, BONUS ROOM OFF DINING/KITCHEN AND LOTS OF STORAGE INSIDE AND OUT. COVERED FRON PORCH WITH RAMP, ALLEY ACCESS AND SHORT COMMUTE TO CHICO OR RED BLUFF. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND EMINITIES. HOME IS ON 433A FOUNDATION.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#650 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Molinos Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #339 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Los Molinos Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 236 students, 82% FRL); Los Molinos High (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 213 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,625
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 83.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25246 Lee St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	23mo	$252,000	$175	48
7985 Ricalia Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	23mo	$265,000	$182	40
25095 Tehama Vina Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+14%)	4mo	$69,000	$39	33
25419 Tehama Vina Rd Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	22mo	$349,000	$259	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-26,884
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,384
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96055

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $284	+0% $213	+5% $143	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $128	+0% $213	+5% $298	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $276	base $213	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8285 Buena Vista Ave Los Molinos, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,150	$1.56	15d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $249,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    SPACIOUS 3 BED 2 BATH HOME ON CORNER LOT IN LOS MOLINOS. HOME HAS NEWER FLOORING, LARGE LIVING ROOM, MASTER BEDROOM, WALK IN CLOSET, BONUS ROOM OFF DINING/KITCHEN AND LOTS OF STORAGE INSIDE AND OUT. COVERED FRON PORCH WITH RAMP, ALLEY ACCESS AND SHORT COMMUTE TO CHICO OR RED BLUFF. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND EMINITIES. HOME IS ON 433A FOUNDATION.

20. 2026-03-13
    historical
21. 2025-10-16
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 108.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Molinos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622860
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,064
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7234
• State rank: #339 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Molinos

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #20269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Molinos, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,404

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.37%
• Current HPI: 259.2093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $249,000 TCAOR
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $299,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $910 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.