121 Riverwood Rd · Sterling, GA 31523

$315,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1986 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spread out your Large Family in this one. Excellent Condition with Spaces and Places for Everyone. Open Great Room, Den/Dining with Fireplace opens to Deluxe Kitchen, Sunroom and So Much More. The Best Price Per Square Foot in River Ridge.

Key facts

• Employment centers
• Vacant and ready
• Shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOTS
• MATURE TREES
• QUICK ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EMPLOYMENT CENTERS
• SHOPPING
• VACANT AND READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sterling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glyndale Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #784 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 621 students, 79% FRL); Jane Macon Middle (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 780 students, 74% FRL); Brunswick High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #88 of 424 statewide, top 22%, 1,932 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 55% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $315k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,000 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $668,752
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Riverwood Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5	3,412 (0%)	0mo	$287,500	$84	100
221 River Ridge Rd	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,984 (-12%)	10mo	$585,000	$196	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-43,980
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-29,493
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31523

• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,899/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $202	+0% $113	+5% $23	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $10	+0% $113	+5% $215	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $193	base $113	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 River Ridge Rd Brunswick, GA	3.0	2.0	2549	$2,600	$1.02	45d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   price $315,000
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $350,000 Active
4. 2002-06-27
   soldstatus $150,000 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Spread out your Large Family in this one. Excellent Condition with Spaces and Places for Everyone. Open Great Room, Den/Dining with Fireplace opens to Deluxe Kitchen, Sunroom and So Much More. The Best Price Per Square Foot in River Ridge.

5. 2002-06-27
   soldstatus $150,000

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Spread out your Large Family in this one. Excellent Condition with Spaces and Places for Everyone. Open Great Room, Den/Dining with Fireplace opens to Deluxe Kitchen, Sunroom and So Much More. The Best Price Per Square Foot in River Ridge.

6. 2001-05-08
   listed $165,900 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Spread out your Large Family in this one. Excellent Condition with Spaces and Places for Everyone. Open Great Room, Den/Dining with Fireplace opens to Deluxe Kitchen, Sunroom and So Much More. The Best Price Per Square Foot in River Ridge.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,898 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 52.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,899
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$4,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $2,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glynn County
• NCES district ID: 1302400
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,554
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #5359
• State rank: #47 of 174 in GA

Livability — Sterling

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,921

Population outlook (Glynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,404 people
• By 2030: 94,806 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 100,060 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 103,258 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 107,970 · +18.1%
• By 2100: 103,363 · +13.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Glynn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.0) · D 36.8% · R 62.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -26.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.0 2020: R+23.2 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.30%
• Current HPI: 174.4323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+89.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $315,000 GIAR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $350,000 GIAR
• 2002-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-27 Sold (MLS) $150,000 GIAR
• 2001-05-08 Listed $165,900 GIAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,899 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.