4307 Common Sage · San Antonio, TX 78073

$245,310

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $167/sqft · 8% below area Est $267k · 8% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Davis, a two-story home located at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors and 2-car garage. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home, you'll find 1489 square feet of living space. The entry opens to a gourmet kitchen before flowing into the dining and family room with an open floorplan concept. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, large breakfast island, and pantry. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. The private main bedroom features an attractive ensuite with quality cabinetry. A spacious tiled walk-in shower and large walk-in closet provide all the space and convenience you need. Additional features of The Davis floor plan include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Private main bedroom
• Gourmet kitchen
• Quality cabinetry

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOORPLAN CONCEPT
• QUALITY CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE BREAKFAST ISLAND
• PRIVATE MAIN BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,840 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,408
• List price: $245,310
• Delta: -8.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4307 Common Sage	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$245,310	$167	99
4247 Paprika Grv	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$245,670	$167	89
4231 Paprika Grv	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$241,170	$164	88
15435 Mint Patch Mdw	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$240,670	$164	87
15523 Mint Patch Mdw	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	6mo	$254,499	$173	87
4243 Marjoram Lndg	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	2mo	$238,610	$166	79
15434 Lemon Pepper Crk	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-2%)	5mo	$253,000	$176	78
15531 Clove Spice	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-7%)	1mo	$196,080	$144	70
15519 Mint Patch Mdw	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+7%)	5mo	$259,000	$165	69
4226 Paprika Grv	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+7%)	6mo	$258,499	$164	68
15418 Lemon Pepper Crk	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+7%)	3mo	$248,590	$158	66
15238 Walcott Rdg	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,301 (-12%)	0mo	$194,450	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,851
• Equity at exit: $104,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $44,868
• Equity at exit: $157,432

Cash invested: $68,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,286
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,680/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $193,949

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-270	+0% $-355	+5% $-440	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-424	+0% $-355	+5% $-286	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-293	base $-355	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,328
• Closing costs: $7,359
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4218 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,595	$1.11	44d	1	0.21mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,129	$1.35	2d	6	0.31mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	21d	1	0.34mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	5d	1	0.34mi
15619 Garam Trl Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1856	$1,755	$0.95	44d	1	0.34mi
4042 Bay Leaf Loop Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.49mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	15d	1	0.51mi
15027 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	0.56mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$1,855	$1.04	2d	1	0.58mi
15266 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,647	$1.08	3d	1	0.66mi
15226 Walcott Rdg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1297	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	0.69mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	5d	1	0.80mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	0.80mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	18d	1	0.80mi
3819 Leighton Hbr Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1430	$1,700	$1.19	24d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

   Welcome to The Davis, a two-story home located at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors and 2-car garage. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home, you'll find 1489 square feet of living space. The entry opens to a gourmet kitchen before flowing into the dining and family room with an open floorplan concept. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, large breakfast island, and pantry. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. The private main bedroom features an attractive ensuite with quality cabinetry. A spacious tiled walk-in shower and large walk-in closet provide all the space and convenience you need. Additional features of The Davis floor plan include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $245,310 1205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

   Welcome to The Davis, a two-story home located at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors and 2-car garage. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home, you'll find 1489 square feet of living space. The entry opens to a gourmet kitchen before flowing into the dining and family room with an open floorplan concept. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, large breakfast island, and pantry. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. The private main bedroom features an attractive ensuite with quality cabinetry. A spacious tiled walk-in shower and large walk-in closet provide all the space and convenience you need. Additional features of The Davis floor plan include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

3. 2026-04-04
   price $240,245 1205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

   Welcome to The Davis, a two-story home located at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors and 2-car garage. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home, you'll find 1489 square feet of living space. The entry opens to a gourmet kitchen before flowing into the dining and family room with an open floorplan concept. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, large breakfast island, and pantry. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. The private main bedroom features an attractive ensuite with quality cabinetry. A spacious tiled walk-in shower and large walk-in closet provide all the space and convenience you need. Additional features of The Davis floor plan include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $244,245 New 1205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

   Welcome to The Davis, a two-story home located at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. This floor plan offers 2 classic exteriors and 2-car garage. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home, you'll find 1489 square feet of living space. The entry opens to a gourmet kitchen before flowing into the dining and family room with an open floorplan concept. The kitchen includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, large breakfast island, and pantry. Head up the stairs to find the main bedroom suite, all secondary bedrooms, the laundry room, and a full bath. The Davis layout is perfect if you love entertaining downstairs and relaxing upstairs. The private main bedroom features an attractive ensuite with quality cabinetry. A spacious tiled walk-in shower and large walk-in closet provide all the space and convenience you need. Additional features of The Davis floor plan include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,741
• − Property taxes: −$3,680
• − Insurance: −$1,227
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,136
• Taxable loss: −$8,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $245,310 LERA
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $240,245 LERA
• 2026-03-05 Listed $244,245 LERA