3713 El Paso Ave · Fort McKinley, OH 45406

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1940 6,299 sqft lot $74/sqft · 26% below area Est $74k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, the interior has been refreshed from top to bottom with stylish luxury vinyl flooring in the main living areas and plush new carpeting in the bedrooms. The functional kitchen and updated bathroom make this residence move-in ready and easy to maintain. The home also features a full, unfinished basement, offering incredible storage potential or a blank canvas for a future workshop or hobby space. Outside, the 50' x 126' lot provides a spacious and manageable backyard, ideal for gardening, pets, or relaxing. Nestled in the established Fort McKinley neighborhood, you are just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining, with quick access to major highways for a seamless commute.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Spacious backyard
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $55k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $51,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.37%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,473
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -26.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3704 Evansville Ave	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	680 (-8%)	20mo	$55,000	$81	63
3942 Beatty Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (+4%)	0mo	$33,110	$43	60
3901 Falmouth Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	832 (+13%)	11mo	$115,000	$138	50
2612 N Gettysburg Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (+6%)	3mo	$28,200	$36	49
2200 Falmouth Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (+12%)	20mo	$87,000	$105	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $18,374
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $51,250
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $484

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $443	+0% $427	+5% $412	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $387	+0% $427	+5% $468	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $441	base $427	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	44d	1	0.47mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	1.09mi
2109 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	3d	1	1.15mi
3652 Otterbein Ave Unit 3652 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	3d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $54,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $64,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    historical ActiveUnderContract 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This charming home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, the interior has been refreshed from top to bottom with stylish luxury vinyl flooring in the main living areas and plush new carpeting in the bedrooms. The functional kitchen and updated bathroom make this residence move-in ready and easy to maintain. The home also features a full, unfinished basement, offering incredible storage potential or a blank canvas for a future workshop or hobby space. Outside, the 50' x 126' lot provides a spacious and manageable backyard, ideal for gardening, pets, or relaxing. Nestled in the established Fort McKinley neighborhood, you are just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining, with quick access to major highways for a seamless commute.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $64,900 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This charming home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, the interior has been refreshed from top to bottom with stylish luxury vinyl flooring in the main living areas and plush new carpeting in the bedrooms. The functional kitchen and updated bathroom make this residence move-in ready and easy to maintain. The home also features a full, unfinished basement, offering incredible storage potential or a blank canvas for a future workshop or hobby space. Outside, the 50' x 126' lot provides a spacious and manageable backyard, ideal for gardening, pets, or relaxing. Nestled in the established Fort McKinley neighborhood, you are just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining, with quick access to major highways for a seamless commute.

18. 2026-03-31
    historical
19. 2026-03-23
    price $69,900
20. 2026-03-03
    status Active
21. 2026-02-28
    historical
22. 2026-02-17
    status Active
23. 2025-12-29
    historical ActiveUnderContract
24. 2025-12-29
    status Pending
25. 2025-12-08
    status Active
26. 2025-11-18
    historical ActiveUnderContract
27. 2025-10-18
    price $79,900
28. 2025-09-17
    price $89,900
29. 2025-08-08
    listed $99,900 Active
30. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus $23,000 Sold
31. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus $23,000 Closed
32. 2019-03-19
    status Pending
33. 2019-03-01
    price $27,000
34. 2019-01-23
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $4,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $4,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+116.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $64,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $69,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-29 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-29 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-18 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $79,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $89,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $99,900 Dayton MLS
• 2019-03-25 Sold (MLS) $23,000 Dayton MLS
• 2019-03-25 Sold (MLS) $23,000 Dayton MLS
• 2019-03-19 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2019-03-01 Price Changed $27,000 Dayton MLS
• 2019-01-23 Listed $30,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.