18628 W Mission Ln · Glendale, AZ 85355

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2006 5,520 sqft lot $239/sqft · 16% below area Est $434k · 16% under $106/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous model like home. Recently updated with new custom paint interior. Appliances (Stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher)less than 1 year old. Back and front yard lanscaped in 2011. In total $ 13,000.00 worth of updating. Easy flowing no wasted space in this home. Great Room opens to the breakfast bar and kitchen which flows into the breakfast room. Nice and wide hallway. Bay Window in the Master Bedroom. Cover patio, and beautifully stoned backyard and patio. A must see. Something like this new with the landscaping would run you over $ 160,000. Not a short sale and ready for immediate move-in. Come take a look today.

Key facts

• 5,520 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• EASY CARE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 5,520 (assessor); Building area source: assessor
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee (maintenance of grounds); Community playground; Biking/walking paths; Security system owned

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Sprinklers front and rear; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate counters; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ flat ceilings; Full bath in primary bedroom; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Gabriela (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 633 students, 37% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $365k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,317 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,973
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -15.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18548 W Hatcher Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+4%)	9mo	$485,000	$306	81
18615 W Puget Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+6%)	3mo	$400,000	$248	77
18351 W Mission Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,595 (+4%)	7mo	$469,900	$295	67
8876 N 185th Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+6%)	17mo	$390,900	$242	64
18076 W Hatcher Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	4mo	$356,000	$244	57
18143 W Purdue Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+10%)	14mo	$335,000	$199	41
18123 W Sunnyslope Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+14%)	10mo	$440,000	$253	39
9250 N 180th Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,689 (+11%)	9mo	$355,000	$210	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-83,827
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-115,468
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85355

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $307,568

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-222	+0% $-325	+5% $-428	+10% $-532
Rent	-10% $-518	-5% $-422	+0% $-325	+5% $-229	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-232	base $-325	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18544 W Palo Verde Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,495	$1.47	17d	1	0.25mi
18544 W Palo Verde Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,495	$1.47	5d	1	0.25mi
18428 W Puget Ave Waddell, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,100	$1.04	5d	1	0.32mi
9204 N 182nd Ln Waddell, AZ	4.0	3.0	1818	$2,150	$1.18	24d	1	0.41mi
18333 W Onyx Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,081	$1.07	44d	1	0.51mi
9609 N 181st Ln Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,995	$1.19	20d	1	0.60mi
9117 N 181st Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1762	$1,995	$1.13	1d	11	0.76mi
17829 W Palo Verde Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,200	$1.37	4d	1	0.98mi
18351 W Mercer Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,495	$1.15	22d	1	1.07mi
17712 W Sanna St Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,700	$1.75	1d	1	1.08mi
17745 W Turquoise Ave Waddell, AZ	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,345	$1.28	3d	1	1.09mi
18541 W Mescal St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1902	$2,625	$1.38	44d	1	1.21mi
17484 W Sunnyslope Ln Waddell, AZ	4.0	3.0	2039	$2,260	$1.11	4d	1	1.44mi
18780 W Cortez St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1944	$2,450	$1.26	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $365,000 Active 425-char remark
2. 2012-05-20
   soldstatus $118,500 Closed 623-char remark

   Show marketing remark (623 chars)

   Gorgeous model like home. Recently updated with new custom paint interior. Appliances (Stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher)less than 1 year old. Back and front yard lanscaped in 2011. In total $ 13,000.00 worth of updating. Easy flowing no wasted space in this home. Great Room opens to the breakfast bar and kitchen which flows into the breakfast room. Nice and wide hallway. Bay Window in the Master Bedroom. Cover patio, and beautifully stoned backyard and patio. A must see. Something like this new with the landscaping would run you over $ 160,000. Not a short sale and ready for immediate move-in. Come take a look today.

3. 2012-04-13
   status Pending 623-char remark

   Show marketing remark (623 chars)

   Gorgeous model like home. Recently updated with new custom paint interior. Appliances (Stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher)less than 1 year old. Back and front yard lanscaped in 2011. In total $ 13,000.00 worth of updating. Easy flowing no wasted space in this home. Great Room opens to the breakfast bar and kitchen which flows into the breakfast room. Nice and wide hallway. Bay Window in the Master Bedroom. Cover patio, and beautifully stoned backyard and patio. A must see. Something like this new with the landscaping would run you over $ 160,000. Not a short sale and ready for immediate move-in. Come take a look today.

4. 2012-03-16
   listed $129,900 Active 623-char remark

   Show marketing remark (623 chars)

   Gorgeous model like home. Recently updated with new custom paint interior. Appliances (Stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher)less than 1 year old. Back and front yard lanscaped in 2011. In total $ 13,000.00 worth of updating. Easy flowing no wasted space in this home. Great Room opens to the breakfast bar and kitchen which flows into the breakfast room. Nice and wide hallway. Bay Window in the Master Bedroom. Cover patio, and beautifully stoned backyard and patio. A must see. Something like this new with the landscaping would run you over $ 160,000. Not a short sale and ready for immediate move-in. Come take a look today.

5. 2010-07-04
   soldstatus $89,900 Closed

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   **BANK OWNED** SPACIOUS 3 BED, 2 BATH WITH LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM. SPACIOUS BACKYARD WITH MOUNTAIN VIEWS. CUSTOM PAINT THROUGHOUT. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

6. 2010-05-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   **BANK OWNED** SPACIOUS 3 BED, 2 BATH WITH LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM. SPACIOUS BACKYARD WITH MOUNTAIN VIEWS. CUSTOM PAINT THROUGHOUT. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

7. 2010-04-26
   listed $89,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (165 chars)

   **BANK OWNED** SPACIOUS 3 BED, 2 BATH WITH LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM. SPACIOUS BACKYARD WITH MOUNTAIN VIEWS. CUSTOM PAINT THROUGHOUT. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

8. 2010-04-17
   historical
9. 2010-04-14
   price $80,000
10. 2010-04-10
    price $89,900
11. 2010-04-08
    price $94,000
12. 2010-04-02
    price $94,899
13. 2010-03-26
    price $94,900
14. 2010-03-17
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,413/yr (+$118/mo · 141.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$10,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Glendale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3235

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 294,586
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,460
• Household income: $123,055
• Rent vs Own: 8.4% rent · 91.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.60%
• Current HPI: 378.7354
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+265.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-20 Sold (MLS) $118,500 ARMLS
• 2012-04-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-03-16 Listed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2010-07-04 Sold (MLS) $89,900 ARMLS
• 2010-05-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-04-26 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2010-04-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-04-14 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-10 Price Changed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2010-04-08 Price Changed $94,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-02 Price Changed $94,899 ARMLS
• 2010-03-26 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2010-03-17 Listed $99,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.