48 Bob White Dr · Water Mill, NY 11976

$3,495,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 272 Days on market

Built 1996 1.00 ac lot $1839/sqft · 164% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated at the end of a cul-de-sac street, this new-to-the-market contemporary couldn't be more private and quiet and is surrounded by many substantial multi-million dollar estates. The home features a beautiful one-acre property with three bedrooms, a den/sitting room, four bathrooms, and a heated pool with extensive decking around the perimeter. Centrally located "just" north of the fields of Water Mill, the home is a mere 10 minute drive to Southampton Village and Bridgehampton, and a 15 minute drive to Sag Harbor Village. Additional features include a 600 sq. ft. finished lower level with gym/media room area; two-car climate controlled garage; outdoor dining area with pergola; koi pond; and updated kitchen and bathrooms.

Key facts

• Extensive decking
• Cul de sac street
• One acre property

Tags

• CUL DE SAC STREET
• ONE ACRE PROPERTY
• HEATED POOL
• EXTENSIVE DECKING
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• GYM MEDIA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($132k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($45k rent vs $3.50M).
• Recommended offer: $3.08M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $44,550/mo this rent would consume 297% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $326k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $302k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $979k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$522k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $810k; list at $3.50M implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,075,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.54%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,675,000
• List price: $3,495,000
• Delta: 108.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Farmstead Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-5%)	2mo	$1,825,000	$1,014	61
11 Deer Trail Rd	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,824 (-4%)	4mo	$1,675,000	$918	59
493 Water Mill Towd Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+1%)	8mo	$1,600,000	$836	56
4 Trail Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-10%)	8mo	$1,400,000	$814	56
71 Bridies Path	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,000 (+5%)	13mo	$1,535,000	$768	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $2,521,415
• Equity at exit: $2,806,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $7,399,419
• Equity at exit: $5,722,216

Cash invested: $978,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $44,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,369 /mo · $52,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,456
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,355
• Net cashflow: $11,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,574

Max offer price $3,495,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,456	-5% $12,249	+0% $11,041	+5% $9,834	+10% $8,626
Rent	-10% $7,522	-5% $9,281	+0% $11,041	+5% $12,801	+10% $14,561
Rate	-1.0pp $12,801	-0.5pp $11,930	base $11,041	+0.5pp $10,136	+1.0pp $9,214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $873,750
• Closing costs: $104,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
813 Edge of Woods Rd Water Mill, NY	3.0	2.0	1250	$6,500	$5.20	44d	1	0.30mi
175 Warfield Way Southampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$22,000	$13.99	44d	1	1.32mi
76 Peconic Hills Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2060	$38,000	$18.45	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 265 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $3,495,000 Active 263 DOM
9. 2025-09-10
   listed $3,495,000 Active 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   Situated at the end of a cul-de-sac street, this new-to-the-market contemporary couldn't be more private and quiet and is surrounded by many substantial multi-million dollar estates. The home features a beautiful one-acre property with three bedrooms, a den/sitting room, four bathrooms, and a heated pool with extensive decking around the perimeter. Centrally located "just" north of the fields of Water Mill, the home is a mere 10 minute drive to Southampton Village and Bridgehampton, and a 15 minute drive to Sag Harbor Village. Additional features include a 600 sq. ft. finished lower level with gym/media room area; two-car climate controlled garage; outdoor dining area with pergola; koi pond; and updated kitchen and bathrooms.

10. 2013-04-02
    historical
11. 2012-08-03
    listed $1,795,000
12. 2012-07-31
    historical
13. 2012-01-31
    listed $1,795,000
14. 2010-06-07
    soldstatus $810,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $534,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$195,774
• − Property taxes: −$52,425
• − Insurance: −$17,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$42,768
• − Management: −$42,768
• − Depreciation: −$101,673
• Taxable income: $81,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,612
• After-tax cash flow: $112,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+331.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-10 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-03 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-31 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $810,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,073 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.