303 Buttermilk Falls Rd · Warwick, NY 10990

$224,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 4.00 ac lot $365/sqft · 30% below area Est $321k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Cottage on 4 acres. If you are a nature buff you will enjoy the surroundings and the mature landscaping. Pergo floors in living room with a pellet stove that can heat the entire home. New carpet in both bedrooms. Bathroom with corner shower. Large deck , storage shed, stone walkway to patio and gazebo with electric and a large fire pit. Great home for first time owners or weekend getaways.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Four acres
• Private setting

Tags

• FOUR ACRES
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• PRIVATE SETTING
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service provided by Orange & Rockland; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedroom count implied within rooms total)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No central air conditioning; Pellet stove
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($599/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#282 in NY, #4,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 482 students, 22% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,523 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,165
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -29.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,125
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,188
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10990

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,408/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,182

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $224,900 Active 457-char remark
2. 2010-10-27
   soldstatus $174,800
3. 2010-10-22
   soldstatus $174,800 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Cute Cottage on 4 acres. If you are a nature buff you will enjoy the surroundings and the mature landscaping. Pergo floors in living room with a pellet stove that can heat the entire home. New carpet in both bedrooms. Bathroom with corner shower. Large deck , storage shed, stone walkway to patio and gazebo with electric and a large fire pit. Great home for first time owners or weekend getaways.

4. 2010-09-15
   historical 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Cute Cottage on 4 acres. If you are a nature buff you will enjoy the surroundings and the mature landscaping. Pergo floors in living room with a pellet stove that can heat the entire home. New carpet in both bedrooms. Bathroom with corner shower. Large deck , storage shed, stone walkway to patio and gazebo with electric and a large fire pit. Great home for first time owners or weekend getaways.

5. 2010-06-17
   listed $174,800 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   Cute Cottage on 4 acres. If you are a nature buff you will enjoy the surroundings and the mature landscaping. Pergo floors in living room with a pellet stove that can heat the entire home. New carpet in both bedrooms. Bathroom with corner shower. Large deck , storage shed, stone walkway to patio and gazebo with electric and a large fire pit. Great home for first time owners or weekend getaways.

6. 2002-05-15
   soldstatus $136,000
7. 2002-05-06
   soldstatus $137,000

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   VERY CHARMING 2 BDRM RANCH ON 4 ACRES ON PRIVATE ROAD! FLR W/ PERGO FLR AND PELLET STOVE EIK HAS APPLIANCES BATH W/ CORNER SHOWER, NICE SIZE DECK, STORAGE SHED, CIR DRIVEWAY! GREAT GETAWAY OR STARTER!

8. 2002-03-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   VERY CHARMING 2 BDRM RANCH ON 4 ACRES ON PRIVATE ROAD! FLR W/ PERGO FLR AND PELLET STOVE EIK HAS APPLIANCES BATH W/ CORNER SHOWER, NICE SIZE DECK, STORAGE SHED, CIR DRIVEWAY! GREAT GETAWAY OR STARTER!

9. 2002-03-26
   price $139,000

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   VERY CHARMING 2 BDRM RANCH ON 4 ACRES ON PRIVATE ROAD! FLR W/ PERGO FLR AND PELLET STOVE EIK HAS APPLIANCES BATH W/ CORNER SHOWER, NICE SIZE DECK, STORAGE SHED, CIR DRIVEWAY! GREAT GETAWAY OR STARTER!

10. 2002-01-10
    listed $137,000

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    VERY CHARMING 2 BDRM RANCH ON 4 ACRES ON PRIVATE ROAD! FLR W/ PERGO FLR AND PELLET STOVE EIK HAS APPLIANCES BATH W/ CORNER SHOWER, NICE SIZE DECK, STORAGE SHED, CIR DRIVEWAY! GREAT GETAWAY OR STARTER!

11. 1999-07-08
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,408 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,408 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$5,408
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $1,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629970
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,288
• Composite: 62.39/100
• National rank: #692
• State rank: #118 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warwick

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #4514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 20,368
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,368
• Household income: $125,870
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 563.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.68%
• Current HPI: 287.3366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+210.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $224,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $174,800 Public Records
• 2010-10-22 Sold (MLS) $174,800 HGMLS
• 2010-09-15 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2010-06-17 Listed $174,800 HGMLS
• 2002-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-06 Sold (MLS) $137,000 HGMLS
• 2002-03-26 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-03-26 Price Changed $139,000 HGMLS
• 2002-01-10 Listed $137,000 HGMLS
• 1999-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,408 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.