75647 Bayley Pl · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$409,330

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Johanna B Lot 118

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-652 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildlight Elementary (math 90% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,025 students, 34% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $253,783 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $181,060
• Equity at exit: $368,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $565,073
• Equity at exit: $795,238

Cash invested: $114,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,147
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,916/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $294,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-536	+0% $-652	+5% $-767	+10% $-883
Rent	-10% $-852	-5% $-752	+0% $-652	+5% $-551	+10% $-451
Rate	-1.0pp $-445	-0.5pp $-547	base $-652	+0.5pp $-758	+1.0pp $-866

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,332
• Closing costs: $12,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,530	$1.15	0d	1	1.03mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	12d	1	1.05mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.17mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.31mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	22d	1	1.36mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	25d	1	1.41mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	6d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $409,330 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,929
• − Property taxes: −$3,916
• − Insurance: −$2,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$11,908
• Taxable loss: −$15,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,690
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $409,330 realMLS

Property tax history

+1570.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,916 · +1570.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.