123 Elmwood Ln · Timberlake, VA 24588

$171,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,515 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 0.66 ac lot $113/sqft · 49% below area Est $338k · 49% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

Key facts

• Main level den
• One story home
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• INVITING LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• MAIN LEVEL DEN
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $171k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $171k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $155,610 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,510
• List price: $171,000
• Delta: -49.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Hawkins Ridge Rd Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+13%)	1mo	$499,000	$292	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,280
• Equity at exit: $25,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,569
• Equity at exit: $14,785

Cash invested: $47,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24588

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$214 /mo · $2,565/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $171,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,750
• Closing costs: $5,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $171,000 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $171,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $171,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $171,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $171,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $171,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $171,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $171,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   status Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

10. 2026-05-11
    status Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

11. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

12. 2026-05-06
    price $171,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

13. 2026-04-06
    price $189,900 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

14. 2026-02-17
    listed $211,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Charming one-story home conveniently located just off Route US-29 in Rustburg, Virginia. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property offers comfortable one-level living with an inviting living room featuring a cozy fireplace, plus a main-level den area perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra lounge space. The eat-in kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space with an abundance of countertops and cabinets plus center island. A full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. Outside, enjoy off-street parking, multiple sheds for additional storage, and garden space ready for your green thumb. With easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes, this home blends convenience with opportunity. HUD homes are sold as is (IE).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,579
• − Property taxes: −$2,565
• − Insurance: −$855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$4,975
• Taxable income: $591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$142
• After-tax cash flow: $3,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some dated features that could be updated to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are dated and could be replaced with modern ones.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and could be replaced with modern ones.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Modernize kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Updating the kitchen will make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Paint interior and exterior — Painting will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are dated and could be replaced with modern ones.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are outdated and could be replaced with modern ones.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Modernize kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Updating the kitchen will make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Paint interior and exterior — Painting will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,664

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.33%
• Current HPI: 183.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — LMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $171,000 LMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $189,900 LMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $211,000 LMLS