2903 138th Pl · Lubbock, TX 79423

$283,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · Other · 203 Days on market

Built 2025 6,635 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 2903 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,737 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn. Images may vary from actual home.

Key facts

• 6,635 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-647/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper South El (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 739 students, 41% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,781 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,370
• Equity at exit: $42,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,891
• Equity at exit: $24,554

Cash invested: $79,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $579/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $274,466

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $26	+0% $-54	+5% $-459	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-134	+0% $-54	+5% $26	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $18	base $-54	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,998
• Closing costs: $8,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	23d	1	0.11mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.12mi
2745 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	0.13mi
2739 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	0.14mi
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	15d	1	0.14mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	0.22mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.24mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.24mi
2550 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$1,795	$1.04	15d	1	0.24mi
3016 140th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	0.25mi
3015 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.26mi
2613 136th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	23d	1	0.29mi
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.29mi
2627 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,600	$1.05	23d	1	0.30mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.33mi
2607 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.33mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	0.36mi
2415 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.50mi
2309 134th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,799	$1.24	15d	1	0.50mi
2410 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.51mi
2410 144th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	45d	1	0.51mi
2404 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.54mi
2308 133rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.56mi
14408 Avenue X Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.56mi
13802 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	15d	1	0.58mi
14413 Avenue X Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.60mi
14102 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.70mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	15d	1	0.80mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.80mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	15d	1	0.91mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	15d	1	0.97mi
13808 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	0.99mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.04mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.07mi
13212 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	1.10mi
3605 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2544	$3,800	$1.49	45d	1	1.11mi
13212 Avenue R Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	15d	1	1.16mi
1705 141st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	1.21mi
1611 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$550	$0.32	23d	1	1.26mi
1635 133rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,500	$0.98	23d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   Welcome home to 2903 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,737 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn. Images may vary from actual home.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $283,990 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   Welcome home to 2903 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,737 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn. Images may vary from actual home.

3. 2025-10-21
   listed $288,990 Active 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   Welcome home to 2903 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,737 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn. Images may vary from actual home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $579 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,197 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,618/yr (+$385/mo · 797.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,908
• − Property taxes: −$579
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$8,262
• Taxable loss: −$5,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $283,990 LARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $288,990 LARMLS

Property tax history

+145.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $579 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.