520 E 2nd St · Erie, PA 16507

$147,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 373 Days on market

Built 1917 2,701 sqft lot $98/sqft · 157% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Income producing investment property. Two bedrooms and one bath in each unit. Both units currently are AirBNB. This is one of seven properties that could be purchased as a package. MLS # 184268, 184267, 184264, 184261, 184252, 184251, 184250

Key facts

• 2,701 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 372 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,813/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 373 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $147k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 373 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.79%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,269
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: 156.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Sobieski St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (0%)	4mo	$70,000	$47	85
302 Wallace St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+12%)	7mo	$79,900	$48	64
456 E 2nd St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+15%)	19mo	$58,000	$34	52
711 E 4th St	0.29mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+12%)	16mo	$55,000	$33	48
820 Wayne St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+6%)	13mo	$42,500	$27	46
1015 E 5th St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+13%)	22mo	$45,000	$27	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $54,141
• Equity at exit: $75,992

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $130,448
• Equity at exit: $125,471

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 67%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,812
Total (2 units)			$1,813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,000 Active 373 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 372 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 371 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 370 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 369 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,000 Active 367 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 366 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,000 Active 364 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,000 Active 362 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,000 Active 361 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,000 Active 358 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,000 Active 357 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 356 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 355 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 354 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,000 Active 353 DOM
18. 2025-12-30
    price $147,000 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Income producing investment property. Two bedrooms and one bath in each unit. Both units currently are AirBNB. This is one of seven properties that could be purchased as a package. MLS # 184268, 184267, 184264, 184261, 184252, 184251, 184250

19. 2025-06-12
    listed $140,000 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Income producing investment property. Two bedrooms and one bath in each unit. Both units currently are AirBNB. This is one of seven properties that could be purchased as a package. MLS # 184268, 184267, 184264, 184261, 184252, 184251, 184250

20. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus $53,000 Closed 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Great rental property is close to everything, walk up attic and 1st floor porch. Newer updates on 1st floor- flooring is carpet & vinyl planks, painting, toilet, sinks. Spaces for off street parking.

21. 2023-08-31
    status Pending 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Great rental property is close to everything, walk up attic and 1st floor porch. Newer updates on 1st floor- flooring is carpet & vinyl planks, painting, toilet, sinks. Spaces for off street parking.

22. 2023-08-09
    historical 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Great rental property is close to everything, walk up attic and 1st floor porch. Newer updates on 1st floor- flooring is carpet & vinyl planks, painting, toilet, sinks. Spaces for off street parking.

23. 2023-07-06
    status Pending 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Great rental property is close to everything, walk up attic and 1st floor porch. Newer updates on 1st floor- flooring is carpet & vinyl planks, painting, toilet, sinks. Spaces for off street parking.

24. 2023-06-14
    listed $53,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Great rental property is close to everything, walk up attic and 1st floor porch. Newer updates on 1st floor- flooring is carpet & vinyl planks, painting, toilet, sinks. Spaces for off street parking.

25. 2015-05-21
    soldstatus $22,000
26. 2015-05-21
    soldstatus $22,000
27. 2015-04-15
    listed $29,900
28. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus $43,000
29. 2007-03-28
    soldstatus $136,000
30. 1997-10-23
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $3,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $5,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+818.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $147,000 GEBOR
• 2025-06-12 Listed $140,000 GEBOR
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $53,000 GEBOR
• 2023-08-31 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2023-07-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-06-14 Listed $53,000 GEBOR
• 2015-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-21 Sold (MLS) $22,000 GEBOR
• 2015-04-15 Listed $29,900 GEBOR
• 2014-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,116 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.