702 NW 3rd St · Mulberry, FL 33860

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1918 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Income potential meets lakefront living at this 2-bed, 1-bath bungalow - set on nearly 15,000 sq ft. Step onto the front porch and take in unobstructed views of Lake Whiddon - then walk across the street to the fishing dock, boat access, gazebo, and play area. Out back, a forested area means no rear neighbors and real quiet. Cool off in the newer above-ground pool and enjoy peace of mind with a recently updated roof (2022). Walkable to schools, daycare, restaurants, the library, and more. Priced below the surrounding market to reflect current condition and cosmetic needs - a true value-add opportunity with location and lot size that are hard to replic

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Fishing dock
• Boat access

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• FISHING DOCK
• BOAT ACCESS
• NEWER ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• RECENTLY UPDATED ROOF
• WALKABLE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.34 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Directions: 60 E > NW 4th Ave > Left NW 3rd
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area about 1,200 (owner-sourced)
• Exterior features: Above-ground private pool; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Storage; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bartow Elementary Academy (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 518 students, 31% FRL); Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $169k implies a 2973% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,505 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-19,677
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,940
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 SW 3rd Ter Mulberry, FL	3.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	3d	1	0.32mi
807 NW 1st Ave Mulberry, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,675	$2.01	14d	1	0.41mi
315 SE Drive Martin Luther King Junior Ave Mulberry, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,275	$2.12	23d	1	0.85mi
177 Lakeview Dr Mulberry, FL	1.0	1.5	864	$1,100	$1.27	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2001-12-31
   soldstatus $5,500
4. 1995-06-26
   soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $462 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$941/yr (+$78/mo · 203.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$246
• After-tax cash flow: $2,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mulberry

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #5311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mulberry, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 24,892
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+813.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records
• 1995-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $462 · +33.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.