11655 Mcswain Rd · Avery, MI 49709

$129,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot $155/sqft · 141% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located just outside Atlanta--known as the Elk Capital of Michigan--this 2-bedroom Redman manufactured home offers a wooded setting on a dirt road surrounded by natural beauty. Enjoy convenient access to ORV and snowmobile trails, along with nearby lakes, rivers, and thousands of acres of state land for hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation. The property provides a great opportunity for a getaway, rental investment, or year-round living for those who appreciate the northern Michigan lifestyle. Whether you're looking for a basecamp for adventure or a place to relax after a day outdoors, this property delivers a true Up North experience.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Hunting
• Nearby rivers

Tags

• WOODED SETTING
• NEARBY LAKES
• NEARBY RIVERS
• HUNTING
• FISHING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family home; Residential property
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Landscaped grounds; Natural vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master located downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Has cooling
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; Blinds on windows; Therapeutic whirlpool; Accessible electrical and environmental controls
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Atlanta Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #546 of 760 in MI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,980 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,243
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 87.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $83,305
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $235,255
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49709

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $266/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $235	+0% $198	+5% $13	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $150	+0% $198	+5% $246	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $231	base $198	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $129,900 Active 646-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $266 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 325.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$266
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $2,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,004
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #12347
• State rank: #546 of 760 in MI

Livability — Avery

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,524

Population outlook (Montmorency County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,233 people
• By 2030: 7,575 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 6,202 · -24.7%
• By 2050: 5,081 · -38.3%
• By 2075: 3,119 · -62.1%
• By 2100: 1,923 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montmorency

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.6% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+44.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.88%
• Current HPI: 361.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $129,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $266 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.