407 Lynn Ave · Baltimore, MD 21223

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1900 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming renovated 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom townhouse located in the desirable Mill Hill neighborhood in Baltimore City, offering a perfect blend of classic character and modern updates. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable and functional layout with brand new carpeting and durable vinyl flooring throughout, creating a warm and inviting living space ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The unfinished basement provides valuable additional storage space and future potential. Convenient on street parking and a prime location just minutes from Downtown Baltimore, local shops, restaurants, and major commuter routes make this home an excellent opportunity. Enjoy the comfort, convenience, and

Key facts

• Renovated townhouse
• Unfinished basement
• On street parking

Tags

• RENOVATED TOWNHOUSE
• MILL HILL NEIGHBORHOOD
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ON STREET PARKING
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Major remodel or effective year 2026
• Construction: Brick and mixed construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade living space
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $120k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.33%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2629 Lehman St	0.05mi	2/1.0	768 (-9%)	16mo	$38,500	$50	70
1028 Parksley Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$179	68
2659 Lehman St	0.04mi	2/1.5	960 (+14%)	8mo	$124,000	$129	65
2214 Wilkens Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (+2%)	9mo	$65,000	$76	64
2225 Wilkens Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	820 (-2%)	13mo	$66,500	$81	60
3236 Lohrs Ln	0.75mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	11mo	$64,000	$76	56
3140 Strickland St	0.60mi	2/1.0	904 (+8%)	6mo	$103,000	$114	54
534 S Smallwood St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	9mo	$39,900	$44	53
525 S Catherine St	0.29mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	11mo	$65,000	$90	53
434 S Smallwood St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	910 (+8%)	10mo	$14,500	$16	53
308 S Payson St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	894 (+6%)	7mo	$25,000	$28	51
420 S Smallwood St	0.43mi	3/3.5 (+1)	910 (+8%)	4mo	$100,000	$110	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,456
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $57,645
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.07mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	23d	1	0.15mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.18mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.42mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	17d	1	0.62mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,375	$1.60	43d	1	0.80mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	23d	1	0.87mi
1712 W Lombard St #4 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	43d	1	0.88mi
3392 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	23d	1	0.96mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	4d	1	1.01mi
2429 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	940	$600	$0.64	23d	1	1.02mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	4d	1	1.04mi
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	1.09mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	1.15mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	1.15mi
28 N Norris St Baltimore, MD	1.0	2.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	43d	1	1.15mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	4d	1	1.16mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	4d	1	1.18mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	12d	1	1.18mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	43d	1	1.22mi
48 S Carrollton Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	670	$1,600	$2.39	43d	1	1.27mi
709 Denison St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,630	$1.94	23d	1	1.28mi
1215 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.28mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	23d	1	1.30mi
600 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,300	$2.17	43d	1	1.33mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	43d	1	1.33mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	845	$1,600	$1.89	43d	1	1.33mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	4d	1	1.35mi
1142 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,601	$1.48	1d	1	1.35mi
1160 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,575	$1.64	23d	1	1.36mi
1163 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1012	$1,700	$1.68	12d	1	1.36mi
1127 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,275	$1.18	23d	1	1.37mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	1.37mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	1.42mi
923 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,625	$1.61	43d	1	1.44mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	1.45mi
4215 Connecticut Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	625	$950	$1.52	23d	1	1.49mi
847 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	952	$1,795	$1.89	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $120,000 Active
15. 2025-03-31
    historical
16. 2024-12-17
    price $69,900
17. 2024-09-18
    price $75,000
18. 2024-08-03
    price $79,000
19. 2024-07-31
    price $790,000
20. 2024-07-30
    status Active
21. 2024-06-06
    status Pending
22. 2024-04-08
    price $80,000
23. 2024-03-22
    price $79,999
24. 2024-02-06
    price $85,000
25. 2024-01-19
    price $92,500
26. 2023-12-05
    price $95,000
27. 2023-11-29
    price $99,000
28. 2023-11-01
    listed $99,990 Active
29. 2021-04-01
    soldstatus $77,000
30. 2020-07-19
    historical
31. 2020-05-20
    listed $50,000 Active
32. 2019-04-23
    historical
33. 2019-02-27
    listed $25,000 Active
34. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $41,000
35. 2014-03-11
    soldstatus $41,000
36. 2013-11-15
    historical
37. 2012-06-15
    listed $55,000
38. 2012-05-16
    historical
39. 2011-11-08
    listed $55,000
40. 2011-10-01
    historical
41. 2011-04-07
    listed $70,000
42. 2011-04-07
    historical
43. 2011-02-20
    listed $58,000
44. 1991-06-05
    soldstatus $35,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $3,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-03 Price Changed $79,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $790,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $79,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $92,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $99,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-20 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-27 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-11 Sold (MLS) $41,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-06-15 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-05-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-11-08 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-07 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-02-20 Listed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1991-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,323 · +49.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.