2627 Marble Manor Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$299,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2005 7,866 sqft lot $97/sqft · 7% below area Est $320k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check this hot property out in the sophisticated neighborhood of Marble Manor! This stunning Single-Family home boasts 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a spacious 3072 square feet of living space. Built in 2005, this charming residence sits on a generous 7865 square foot lot. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your dream home!

Key facts

• 7,866 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,771 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,929
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -6.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2511 Marble Manor Ln	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,152 (+3%)	11mo	$295,000	$94	81
21611 Blue Heather Ct	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,084 (+0%)	17mo	$300,000	$97	80
2703 Blue Mills Ct	0.22mi	4/3.5	3,235 (+5%)	2mo	$325,000	$100	79
21831 Manitou Falls Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,912 (-5%)	10mo	$338,440	$116	62
2403 Northern Great White Ct	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,098 (+1%)	12mo	$366,000	$118	59
2830 Katybriar Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,761 (-10%)	8mo	$285,000	$103	58
2726 Indigo Stone Ln	0.32mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,394 (+10%)	10mo	$320,000	$94	54
2515 Knoll Shadows Ln	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,528 (+15%)	13mo	$359,000	$102	51
21638 Dalton Spring Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	3,500 (+14%)	5mo	$359,000	$103	48
21406 Lark Creek Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5	3,380 (+10%)	7mo	$274,900	$81	45
3110 Snug Harbour Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,696 (-12%)	14mo	$239,900	$89	42
21643 Manitou Falls Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5	3,524 (+15%)	14mo	$360,000	$102	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,208
• Equity at exit: $68,307

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-95,416
• Equity at exit: $68,482

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$655 /mo · $7,854/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,971

Max offer price $220,771

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2723 Durham Chase Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2765	$2,275	$0.82	1d	1	0.35mi
20926 Hamlet Ridge Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,195	$0.89	24d	1	1.09mi
20911 Hazy Bluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2940	$2,450	$0.83	43d	1	1.17mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $299,000 Pending 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $308,000 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Come check this hot property out in the sophisticated neighborhood of Marble Manor! This stunning Single-Family home boasts 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a spacious 3072 square feet of living space. Built in 2005, this charming residence sits on a generous 7865 square foot lot. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your dream home!

16. 2026-03-21
    listed $318,000 Active 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Come check this hot property out in the sophisticated neighborhood of Marble Manor! This stunning Single-Family home boasts 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a spacious 3072 square feet of living space. Built in 2005, this charming residence sits on a generous 7865 square foot lot. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your dream home!

17. 2020-03-17
    soldstatus
18. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus Sold 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

19. 2020-03-14
    status Pending 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

20. 2020-03-03
    status Option Pending 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

21. 2020-02-26
    price $224,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

22. 2020-02-06
    status Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

23. 2020-02-05
    status Option Pending 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

24. 2019-11-15
    listed $229,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    New Carpet, New Ceramic Tile, New Interior Paint New Granite-Look Formica Counters. Huge Gameroom upstairs. Extra room is a sitting area attached to the Master Bedroom upstairs. Two Master suites. .. Largest one upstairs. .. downstairs bedroom is also good size AND has full bath! One half bath also downstairs. Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer, Full Sprinkler System, and Garage Door Opener ALL included! Huge Laundry Room upstairs! This Home has ALL the room you need!!

25. 2018-03-26
    historical
26. 2017-12-01
    listed $199,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,854 · $655/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,854 · $655/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,854
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$10,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $308,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-26 Price Changed $224,000 HARMLS
• 2020-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-02-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-15 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Listed $199,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,854 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.