12196 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$299,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $138/sqft · 9% below area Est $330k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. The owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,982 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,990
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	83
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (-4%)	0mo	$327,990	$158	79
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	68
38442 Palomino Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	20mo	$380,000	$172	68
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,095 (-4%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	67
12020 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,095 (-4%)	18mo	$383,843	$183	67
38396 Palomino Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	20mo	$387,900	$176	65
38416 Palomino Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	22mo	$472,900	$214	64
38403 Honeysuckle Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+4%)	21mo	$365,990	$162	52
38399 Barrel Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-11%)	15mo	$402,900	$208	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,756
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,705
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 98 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 58.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $317,045 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $294,910

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $69	+0% $-35	+5% $-139	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-137	+0% $-35	+5% $67	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $41	base $-35	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.25mi
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.30mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.31mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.32mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,092	$1.05	7d	8	0.59mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family homePlan name: Dawn
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing year)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,174

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open layout (plan: Dawn)Spec home — new construction

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-07-23
   days on market $299,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   price $299,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $304,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $304,990 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-07-20
   days on market $304,990 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-07-15
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $314,990 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $314,990 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-07-11
    days on market $314,990 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-07-10
    days on market $314,990 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $314,990 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-07-07
    days on market $333,990 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-07-06
    days on market $333,990 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $333,990 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-07-05
    days on market $333,990 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-07-03
    days on market $333,990 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-07-03
    days on market $333,990 Active 24 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $333,990 Active 23 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    price $333,990 Active 22 DOM
22. 2026-06-30
    days on market $338,990 Active 22 DOM
23. 2026-06-29
    price $338,990 Active 21 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $338,890 Active 21 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $338,890 Active 20 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $338,890 Active 19 DOM
27. 2026-06-26
    days on market $338,890 Active 18 DOM
28. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $338,890 Active 16 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $323,690 Active 10 DOM
30. 2026-06-18
    price $323,690 Active 9 DOM
31. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $321,690 Active 9 DOM
32. 2026-06-16
    days on market $321,590 Active 8 DOM
33. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $321,590 Active 7 DOM
34. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $316,590 Active 5 DOM
35. 2026-06-08
    remarks 500-char remark
36. 2026-06-08
    listed $315,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,477
• − Management: −$2,477
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,326
• After-tax cash flow: $905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,870–$32,610 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a good condition score of 80 and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior walls and replacing the shower curtain in the master bathroom to enhance curb appeal and make the home more appealing to potential buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace the shower curtain in the master bathroom — A new shower curtain can improve the overall look and feel of the bathroom, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family homePlan name: Dawn
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing year)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,174

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open layout (plan: Dawn)Spec home — new construction