12196 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$323,690

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $374k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. The owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home; Plan name: Dawn
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing year)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,174

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open layout (plan: Dawn); Spec home — new construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,669/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,930 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,928
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	16mo	$375,000	$170	70
12228 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+2%)	23mo	$379,990	$172	65
38403 Honeysuckle Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+4%)	20mo	$365,990	$162	54
38399 Barrel Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-11%)	13mo	$402,900	$208	46
38428 Palomino Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-11%)	24mo	$409,900	$212	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,523
• Equity at exit: $48,263

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-62,832
• Equity at exit: $27,987

Cash invested: $90,633 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,697
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,855/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,832

Max offer price $305,139

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $-16	+0% $-128	+5% $-240	+10% $-352
Rent	-10% $-339	-5% $-234	+0% $-128	+5% $-23	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-46	base $-128	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,922
• Closing costs: $9,711
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	1d	1	0.25mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	26d	1	0.31mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,028	$1.02	1d	15	0.59mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $323,690 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $323,690 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $321,690 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $321,590 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $321,590 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $316,590 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 500-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $315,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,132
• − Property taxes: −$4,855
• − Insurance: −$1,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − Depreciation: −$9,416
• Taxable loss: −$7,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,708
• After-tax cash flow: $169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a good condition score of 80 and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior walls and replacing the shower curtain in the master bathroom to enhance curb appeal and make the home more appealing to potential buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Resale Replace the shower curtain in the master bathroom — A new shower curtain can improve the overall look and feel of the bathroom, making it more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace the shower curtain in the master bathroom — A new shower curtain can improve the overall look and feel of the bathroom, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B