40010 W Cahill Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2022 4,593 sqft lot Est $314k · 16% under $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale Deal - Spacious single-level home with an open layout, neutral finishes, and a functional design that works well for everyday living. The main living area offers tile flooring, plenty of natural light, and direct access to the backyard through sliding glass doors. The kitchen features white cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a center island with seating, pantry storage, and pendant lighting, all opening to the dining and living spaces for an easy flow. The primary suite includes carpet flooring, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with dual sinks. Additional bedrooms provide flexible space for family, guests, office use, hobbies, or storage. The backyard

Key facts

• Natural light
• Open layout
• Tile flooring

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• WHITE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: HOA with $79 monthly fee covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include a lake, playground, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front yard with auto timer; Desert front landscaping; Dirt in back yard; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rosa Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 50% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,936 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39985 W Rio Lobo Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-9%)	2mo	$285,000	$213	80
39990 W Anne Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+8%)	1mo	$329,995	$208	78
39980 W Rio Lobo Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,579 (+8%)	1mo	$330,000	$209	76
22100 N Lynn St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+8%)	1mo	$360,000	$227	76
22040 N Lynn St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+8%)	2mo	$350,000	$221	76
22727 N Rocco Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-1%)	0mo	$295,000	$204	70
40643 W Shaver Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-1%)	2mo	$310,000	$214	63
40939 W Hayden Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+4%)	3mo	$278,000	$182	59
39970 W Placone Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	2mo	$369,990	$220	57
22385 N Rummler Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	3mo	$382,990	$228	56
40045 W Bunker Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+15%)	2mo	$378,990	$226	56
40381 W Robbins Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$170	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,788
• Equity at exit: $65,399

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,409
• Equity at exit: $69,901

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,030/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $232,388

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21765 N Rummler Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,095	$1.33	5d	1	0.09mi
40040 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,050	$1.28	43d	1	0.12mi
39974 W Thornberry Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,900	$1.30	14d	1	0.42mi
40499 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	43d	1	0.60mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.60mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,775	$1.08	24d	1	0.60mi
40356 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,775	$1.13	5d	1	0.64mi
40145 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,750	$1.11	43d	1	0.64mi
40499 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,599	$1.21	43d	1	0.64mi
40643 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,595	$1.10	24d	1	0.68mi
40322 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,750	$1.21	24d	1	0.68mi
41192 W Rio Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,789	$1.01	20d	1	0.71mi
41201 W Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,799	$1.16	1d	1	0.72mi
40871 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	1d	1	0.73mi
41284 W Cahill Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,750	$1.29	10d	1	0.76mi
21552 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	43d	1	0.86mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,681	$1.08	5d	1	0.90mi
41570 W Dusty Creek Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	1.02mi
21110 N Blue Agave Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	43d	1	1.07mi
22693 N Davis Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,399	$1.09	43d	1	1.07mi
22463 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	24d	1	1.10mi
39941 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	24d	1	1.11mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	12d	1	1.21mi
41094 W Somers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	1d	1	1.23mi
41889 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	3.0	1857	$1,845	$0.99	5d	1	1.27mi
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,820	$1.00	5d	1	1.29mi
20520 N Candlelight Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1613	$1,795	$1.11	16d	1	1.38mi
22303 Bishop Dr Unit 1545930P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	12d	1	1.39mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	43d	1	1.42mi
19550 N Gunsmoke Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$1,604	$1.52	24d	10	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2022-07-28
    historical
17. 2022-07-26
    price $381,090
18. 2022-07-23
    listed $386,090 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,030
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,657
• After-tax cash flow: $-558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $270,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $381,090 ARMLS
• 2022-07-23 Listed $386,090 ARMLS

Property tax history

+33.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,030 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.