4215 Paprika Grv · San Antonio, TX 78073

$227,440

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $178/sqft · 9% below area Est $249k · 9% under · waterfront $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barton is a charming one-story home featured at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1281 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Barton floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Preserve at Medina by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Quality cabinets
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• QUALITY CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,779 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,222
• List price: $227,440
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15531 Clove Spice	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+7%)	1mo	$196,080	$144	80
4246 Paprika Grv	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	2mo	$233,109	$202	78
4243 Marjoram Lndg	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	2mo	$238,610	$166	75
15514 Mint Patch Mdw	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	6mo	$233,109	$202	75
15503 Mint Patch Mdw	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	4mo	$214,610	$186	74
15238 Walcott Rdg	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,301 (+2%)	0mo	$194,450	$149	73
15434 Lemon Pepper Crk	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	5mo	$253,000	$176	73
4231 Paprika Grv	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	1mo	$241,170	$164	71
4247 Paprika Grv	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	1mo	$245,670	$167	69
15435 Mint Patch Mdw	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	3mo	$240,670	$164	64
15523 Mint Patch Mdw	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	6mo	$254,499	$173	62
4307 Common Sage	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	1mo	$245,310	$167	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,404
• Equity at exit: $97,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $53,886
• Equity at exit: $145,963

Cash invested: $63,683 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,412/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $192,736

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-161	+0% $-240	+5% $-318	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-308	+0% $-240	+5% $-172	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-182	base $-240	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,860
• Closing costs: $6,823
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4218 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.03mi
4231 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	3.0	1470	$1,723	$1.17	0d	1	0.04mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	6d	1	0.17mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	22d	1	0.17mi
15619 Garam Trl Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1856	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.23mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,129	$1.35	0d	6	0.24mi
15319 Escalante Pass Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,000	$1.40	0d	1	0.24mi
15115 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	0.27mi
15706 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,650	$1.07	0d	1	0.30mi
15027 Harbor Lndg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.32mi
4042 Bay Leaf Loop Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.35mi
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$1,855	$1.04	0d	1	0.36mi
15266 Snug Harbor Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,647	$1.08	4d	1	0.48mi
15226 Walcott Rdg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1297	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	0.49mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.57mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,800	$1.18	19d	1	0.57mi
15115 Jetfire Pt Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	6d	1	0.57mi
3819 Leighton Hbr Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1430	$1,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,440 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,440 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,440 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,440 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $227,440 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,440 Price Change 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,440 Price Change 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,440 Price Change 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $227,440 Price Change 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricestatusdays on market $227,440 Price Change 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,075 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,075 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,075 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,075 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $226,890 Active 1348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

    The Barton is a charming one-story home featured at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1281 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Barton floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Contact us today and find your home in Preserve at Medina by clicking the text with us button or the request information button.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $228,075 1232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

    The Barton is a charming one-story home featured at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1281 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Barton floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $226,440 New 1232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1232 chars)

    The Barton is a charming one-story home featured at Preserve at Medina in Von Ormy, TX. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1281 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedrooms all feature quality carpet flooring and a closet, and can be used as bedrooms, offices, work out spaces or other bonus rooms. The possibilities are endless with The Barton floor plan. Additional features include sheet vinyl flooring in entry, living room, and all wet areas, quartz counter tops in all bathrooms and HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,740
• − Property taxes: −$3,412
• − Insurance: −$1,137
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,616
• Taxable loss: −$6,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,652
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $226,890 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $228,075 LERA
• 2026-04-16 Listed $226,440 LERA