4617 Crabwood Dr · Austintown, OH 44515

$45,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1966 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLING AS IS NEEDS TOTAL RENOVATION

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 4.8% in Austintown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#322 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Austintown Local Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #290 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.67%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4617 Crabwood Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$45,000	$43	92
4656 Pinegrove Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$224,900	$216	89
4689 Crabwood Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	8mo	$169,000	$156	79
4674 Barrington Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	7mo	$210,000	$202	75
2388 Innwood Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	7mo	$185,500	$178	73
4314 Kerrybrook Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$231	72
4591 Fitzgerald Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-3%)	4mo	$165,000	$163	68
40 Woodleigh Ct	0.59mi	3/1.0	992 (-5%)	5mo	$165,000	$166	59
4345 Pembrook Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	4mo	$118,500	$110	58
4289 Wedgewood Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	988 (-5%)	7mo	$190,000	$192	57
4465 Burkey Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	902 (-13%)	2mo	$110,000	$122	39
4257 Claridge Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+15%)	1mo	$177,300	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $28,016
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $70,099
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44515

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,991/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $532

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $566	+0% $553	+5% $540	+10% $528
Rent	-10% $456	-5% $504	+0% $553	+5% $602	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $576	-0.5pp $564	base $553	+0.5pp $541	+1.0pp $529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2230 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	1141	$1,135	$0.99	13d	1	0.30mi
1837 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	695	$975	$1.40	13d	1	0.40mi
2239 Woodland Trce Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,850	$1.71	44d	1	0.44mi
4661 New Hampshire Ct Austintown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	795	$1,325	$1.67	13d	1	0.67mi
4415 Deer Creek Ct Youngstown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	779	$945	$1.21	13d	1	0.75mi
4222 New Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	874	$835	$0.96	14d	1	0.82mi
3968 Staatz Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1112	$1,650	$1.48	44d	1	0.92mi
4815 Westchester Dr Unit 41-318 Austintown, OH	2.0	1.0	860	$875	$1.02	14d	1	1.07mi
4815 Westchester Dr Unit 4896-05 Austintown, OH	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,025	$0.85	14d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,991
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,531
• After-tax cash flow: $5,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austintown Local Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904829
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,129
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #1778
• State rank: #290 of 656 in OH

Livability — Austintown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #5290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austintown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 27,740
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 27,740
• Household income: $52,831
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.9

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.64%
• Current HPI: 228.0895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-05 Listed $45,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,991 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.