2307 Oakdale Rd #75 · Modesto, CA 95355

$109,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,236 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $121k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gated 2 Bedroom 2.5 Bathroom home in Glenwood Park Senior Community. Spacious Primary bedroom and indoor laundry room. Newer flooring with central air & heat. Cozy family room with dining area overlooking kitchen. Sitting on a spacious lot and a sunroom! Park features Rec Room, on-site management, offering low space rent.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Sunroom
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRAL AIR
• SUNROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $747 land lease amount (listed)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: not indicated as leased

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Other sewer; Other electric; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1966; Located on a corner space in a senior community
• Construction: Viking make (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Other roof type

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Microwave; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 partial bathroom; Tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Microwave; Free standing gas range; Synthetic counter; Formal dining area; Living room with unspecified feature; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.86%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,128
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2307 Oakdale Rd #13	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	1mo	$175,000	$140	91
2307 Oakdale Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	10mo	$122,000	$98	88
2307 Oakdale Rd	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,236 (0%)	16mo	$70,000	$57	82
2307 Oakdale Rd #99	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	15mo	$80,000	$67	81
2307 Oakdale #6	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	23mo	$129,000	$103	77
2307 Oakdale Rd #32	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+7%)	12mo	$55,000	$42	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $29,282
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $77,277
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Oakdale Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	728	$1,969	$2.70	13d	1	0.26mi
1915 Celeste Ct Unit CE1915-B Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,525	$2.02	13d	1	0.32mi
1704 Rose Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	13d	1	0.62mi
1802 Rockford Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$1,850	$2.07	23d	1	0.79mi
1800 Rockford Ave Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$1,850	$2.07	13d	1	0.79mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	0.87mi
2405 Vera Cruz Dr Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,675	$1.82	13d	1	0.88mi
2616 Casita Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	13d	1	0.91mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	13d	2	0.91mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	0.91mi
2100 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,740	$1.96	13d	10	0.94mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	0.96mi
2005 Coffee Rd Unit 2005 Coffee Road, Modesto, Calif Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	13d	1	0.98mi
2025 Sweetwater Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,650	$1.90	21d	1	1.11mi
3055 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$2,426	$2.61	13d	13	1.14mi
1401 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,962	$2.33	13d	4	1.20mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	13d	7	1.26mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	13d	1	1.27mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	1.27mi
1000 Brighton Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,998	$1.60	13d	1	1.42mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 325-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $109,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $8,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $7,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B