2835 Arbor Hill Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$8,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1376 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot $5/sqft · 75% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BR/2BA on a huge lot in a quiet neighborhood. Convenient location close to I-55 and shopping. Den, dining room, master suite with garden tub, 2 extra rooms for office or shopping, plus a nice, wrap-around porch. Thank you.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Siding exterior; Slab foundation; Approximately 1,900 total building area (assessor)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling indicated
• Interior features: Bathrooms: 2 full

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $9k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $914 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $9k).
• Recommended offer: $8k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 130.9% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sykes Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #319 of 375 statewide, top 88%, 325 students, 100% FRL); Whitten Middle School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #168 of 179 statewide, top 94%, 338 students, 100% FRL); Wingfield High School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 608 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $61 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $264 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1376 days — a 12% lower offer ($8k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (87%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $7,744 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 14.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 130.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 445.08%
• DSCR: 20.80
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $35,146
• List price: $8,800
• Delta: -74.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3033 Grey Blvd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,687 (-11%)	10mo	$17,500	$10	50
2662 Key St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,680 (-12%)	1mo	$35,000	$21	46
139 Wagwood St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-14%)	16mo	$34,900	$21	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.68×
• Total profit: $58,345
• Equity at exit: $1,312

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 54.71×
• Total profit: $132,336
• Equity at exit: $761

Cash invested: $2,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$46
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$11 /mo · $132/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $914

Break-even live

Break-even rent $77

Max offer price $8,800

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $920	-5% $917	+0% $914	+5% $911	+10% $908
Rent	-10% $816	-5% $865	+0% $914	+5% $963	+10% $1,011
Rate	-1.0pp $918	-0.5pp $916	base $914	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,200
• Closing costs: $264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
245 Shady Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,100	$0.73	25d	1	0.96mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	45d	1	1.09mi
1848 Willaneel Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,100	$0.68	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $8,800 Active 1376 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $8,800 Active 1373 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $8,800 Active 1372 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $8,800 Active 1371 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,800 Active 1370 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $8,800 Active 1368 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,800 Active 1367 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $8,800 Active 1365 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,800 Active 1364 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $8,800 Active 1363 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $8,800 Active 1362 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $8,800 Active 1359 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $8,800 Active 1358 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $8,800 Active 1357 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,800 Active 1356 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,800 Active 1355 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $8,800 Active 1354 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $8,800
19. 2025-11-25
    price $18,750
20. 2025-05-05
    price $28,750
21. 2024-12-30
    price $35,000
22. 2024-09-06
    status Active
23. 2024-09-01
    historical
24. 2024-05-03
    price $45,000
25. 2024-01-17
    status Active
26. 2024-01-17
    historical
27. 2023-11-17
    price $57,500
28. 2023-09-16
    price $65,000
29. 2022-12-08
    status Active
30. 2022-12-01
    historical
31. 2022-09-02
    listed $69,900 Active
32. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus
33. 2003-02-13
    listed $58,000

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    3BR/2BA on a huge lot in a quiet neighborhood. Convenient location close to I-55 and shopping. Den, dining room, master suite with garden tub, 2 extra rooms for office or shopping, plus a nice, wrap-around porch. Thank you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$493
• − Property taxes: −$132
• − Insurance: −$44
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$256
• Taxable income: $11,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,763
• After-tax cash flow: $8,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-84.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $8,800 MLSU
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $18,750 MLSU
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $28,750 MLSU
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $35,000 MLSU
• 2024-09-06 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $45,000 MLSU
• 2024-01-17 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-01-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $57,500 MLSU
• 2023-09-16 Price Changed $65,000 MLSU
• 2022-12-08 Relisted — MLSU
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-09-02 Listed $69,900 MLSU
• 2022-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-08 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2003-02-13 Listed $58,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,505 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.