602 W Karnes · Robinson, TX 76706

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot $110/sqft · 16% below area Est $256k · 16% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice Home in Robinson ISD! Home is conveniently located to shopping, restaurants, hospitals, malls, etc. Garage has been converted. It is a really nice conversion. They are currently using it for another bedroom, but could easily be a second living area. The backyard is big with lots of room for entertaining.

Key facts

• Big backyard
• Converted garage
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• BIG BACKYARD
• ROOM FOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.27 acre; Subdivision: Greenland Hills Addition; Directions: Hwy 77 in Robinson to Karnes, turn right, property on the left
• Financial info: Assumable loan available (qualifying); Original mortgage dated 2009-07-31; Lender: Incommons Bank
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cable available; City water; City sewer; All-weather road
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1978
• Exterior features: All-weather and asphalt access; City water and city sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Robinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robinson ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #179 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robinson El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 362 students, 49% FRL); Robinson Int (math 54% / reading 44%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 539 students, 42% FRL); Robinson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 696 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,568/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,825 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,690
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Tinsley W	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (-0%)	2mo	$289,000	$148	75
601 Christina Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,843 (-6%)	4mo	$325,000	$176	71
605 Perry Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,066 (+6%)	11mo	$425,000	$206	64
617 Christina Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,077 (+6%)	3mo	$400,000	$193	62
905 W Elizabeth Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$160	59
1004 W Elizabeth Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,785 (-9%)	0mo	$249,900	$140	59
313 Crye Cir	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,178 (+11%)	10mo	$467,900	$215	58
913 Elizabeth	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-11%)	4mo	$189,000	$108	56
800 W Denison Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,178 (+11%)	10mo	$274,900	$126	54
708 N Old Robinson Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,681 (-14%)	3mo	$319,500	$190	52
600 Apple Cross Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-12%)	3mo	$280,000	$162	45
613 N Old Robinson Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,193 (+12%)	9mo	$195,000	$89	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-53,389
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-75,143
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,438/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,903

Max offer price $168,242

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-203	+0% $-264	+5% $-325	+10% $-386
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-326	+0% $-264	+5% $-202	+10% $-140
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-209	base $-264	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $214,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $214,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $214,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 310-char remark
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $219,900 Active 310-char remark
18. 2023-11-05
    historical
19. 2023-07-24
    listed $239,000
20. 2023-04-04
    historical
21. 2022-10-05
    listed $249,000
22. 2009-08-04
    soldstatus
23. 2007-05-10
    soldstatus
24. 2006-11-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,438 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$494/yr (+$41/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,438
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$6,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,096
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #3113
• State rank: #179 of 826 in TX

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robinson, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 40,668
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $214,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2023-11-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-10-05 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2009-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,438 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.