2631 Sunlit Meadow Trl · Fresno, TX 77545

$329,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,597 sqft lot $124/sqft · 7% below area Est $355k · 7% under $43/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! This 4-year-old home in Winfield Lakes features 4 bedrooms, with the primary bedroom downstairs, high ceilings, a study, game room, and granite countertops in the kitchen. With a covered patio and ample space for family gatherings, this "Long Lake builder" property is ideal for entertaining. The kitchen boasts plenty of cabinets, granite counters, and natural light, overlooking the family room. This home offers 2 1/2 baths, 2656 square ft of living space. WHY buy new when you can own this beauty. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• 5,597 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-280/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (1.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $330k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 651 students, 76% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 35% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,840
• List price: $329,995
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2723 Fawn Mountain Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,785 (+5%)	0mo	$359,000	$129	73
2618 Balsam Ridge Way	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,764 (+4%)	1mo	$300,000	$109	69
2019 Damasi Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,615 (-2%)	0mo	$319,000	$122	69
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,392 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$123	68
18555 Porta Marina Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+5%)	1mo	$382,390	$137	67
18535 Porta Marina Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,872 (+8%)	2mo	$390,950	$136	59
18411 Porta Marina Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+5%)	1mo	$378,098	$136	58
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,323 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$129	57
18630 Serapis St	0.39mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,837 (+7%)	2mo	$426,840	$150	56
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,480 (-7%)	1mo	$279,900	$113	53
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,340 (-12%)	1mo	$332,500	$142	52
3007 Acacia Fair Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,351 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$132	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-50,331
• Equity at exit: $64,384

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-70,197
• Equity at exit: $55,303

Cash invested: $92,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$795 /mo · $9,542/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,426

Max offer price $325,866

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $70	+0% $-23	+5% $-117	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-158	+0% $-23	+5% $111	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $61	base $-23	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,499
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	45d	1	0.06mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	0.87mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	21d	1	0.98mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	45d	1	1.01mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	1.04mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	22d	1	1.05mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	22d	1	1.09mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	1.10mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	1.10mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	22d	1	1.27mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	22d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,995 Pending 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,995 Pending 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,995 Pending 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $329,995 Pending 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,995 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,995 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,995 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,995 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,995 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    price $329,995 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    REDUCED! This 4-year-old home in Winfield Lakes features 4 bedrooms, with the primary bedroom downstairs, high ceilings, a study, game room, and granite countertops in the kitchen. With a covered patio and ample space for family gatherings, this "Long Lake builder" property is ideal for entertaining. The kitchen boasts plenty of cabinets, granite counters, and natural light, overlooking the family room. This home offers 2 1/2 baths, 2656 square ft of living space. WHY buy new when you can own this beauty. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your appointment today!

11. 2026-01-05
    listed $339,995 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    REDUCED! This 4-year-old home in Winfield Lakes features 4 bedrooms, with the primary bedroom downstairs, high ceilings, a study, game room, and granite countertops in the kitchen. With a covered patio and ample space for family gatherings, this "Long Lake builder" property is ideal for entertaining. The kitchen boasts plenty of cabinets, granite counters, and natural light, overlooking the family room. This home offers 2 1/2 baths, 2656 square ft of living space. WHY buy new when you can own this beauty. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,542 · $795/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,542 · $795/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$9,542
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,260
• − Management: −$3,260
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$5,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $1,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-year-old home in Winfield Lakes is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen aesthetics and functionality.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances bathroom aesthetics and functionality.
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, improving energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves kitchen aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances bathroom aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, improving energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $329,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $339,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,542 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.