5151 Brobeck St · Swartz Creek, MI 48532

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1973 7,405 sqft lot $124/sqft · 6% below area Est $127k · 6% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals - making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won't want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer's agent.

Key facts

• Access to schools
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO EXPRESSWAYS
• ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• ACCESS TO NEARBY HOSPITALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Swartz Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#433 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools (suburban): math 12% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #468 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,208
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -5.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2176 Lauderdale St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-7%)	1mo	$115,000	$127	80
5290 Brobeck St	0.26mi	3/1.0	900 (-7%)	3mo	$101,500	$113	73
5237 Dania St	0.17mi	3/1.0	912 (-6%)	15mo	$116,000	$127	70
5425 Westchester Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	948 (-2%)	2mo	$187,000	$197	67
5200 Dania St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-2%)	19mo	$120,000	$126	66
2126 Deerfield Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,065 (+10%)	12mo	$170,000	$160	59
5390 Brobeck St	0.45mi	3/1.0	904 (-7%)	14mo	$159,000	$176	56
2121 Penway Ct	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+8%)	22mo	$168,000	$160	50
5369 Devon Ct	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,051 (+8%)	22mo	$165,000	$157	46
2455 S Dye Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,109 (+14%)	7mo	$145,000	$131	45
2357 Hialeah Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+6%)	22mo	$129,900	$126	43
5525 Westchester Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+11%)	9mo	$180,000	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,051
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $11,991
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48532

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5476 Westchester Dr Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,565	$1.56	13d	1	0.57mi
1415 S Linden Rd Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	13d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   listing id $119,900 Pending 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   remarks 665-char remark
4. 2026-06-01
   listing id $119,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   price $119,900 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals - making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won't want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer's agent.

8. 2026-04-30
   price $119,900 687-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

9. 2026-03-13
   price $124,900 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (687 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

10. 2026-03-13
    price $124,900 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

11. 2026-03-04
    status Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

12. 2026-03-03
    historical 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

13. 2026-02-26
    listed $132,000 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

14. 2026-02-26
    listed $132,000 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Welcome home! This well-priced 3-bedroom home is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize comfortably. Located in the desirable Carman-Ainsworth School District, this home offers convenient access to shopping, expressways, schools, and nearby hospitals—making everyday living a breeze. With solid quality at an attractive price point, this property truly stands out as a must-see. Whether you’re starting your homeownership journey or seeking a low-maintenance retirement option, this home delivers value and location you won’t want to miss. All measurements are approximate and should be verified by the buyer or buyer’s agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2607890
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,394
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9149
• State rank: #468 of 540 in MI

Livability — Swartz Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #433
• US rank: #12045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,339
• Population (ZIP): 19,750

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 38% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.08%
• Current HPI: 202.407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-02-26 Listed $132,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-26 Listed $132,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,658 · -13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.