2465 Oak Stream Dr · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2022 6,534 sqft lot Est $286k · 30% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 31% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**SAVE BIG EVERY MONTH WITH FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS!** This beautiful 4-bedroom home comes with fully paid-off solar panels, offering significant monthly savings from day one. Located in one of Clay County's top communities, this open-concept floor plan features split bedrooms, a spacious kitchen with center island, and a large primary suite with a huge walk-in closet. Just 3 years old and in excellent condition, the home also offers a fully fenced yard, indoor laundry, smart home/security system, and plenty of storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities: pool, clubhouse, gym, and sports courts. Minutes from shopping, dining, St. Johns River boat ramps, NAS Jax (25 min), and top-rated schools. Peaceful living with incredible,convenience, value and energy efficiency! Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2449 Oak Stream Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,700 (0%)	2mo	$260,000	$153	96
2294 Falling Star Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,700 (0%)	6mo	$285,000	$168	88
2418 Oak Stream Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (+1%)	4mo	$280,000	$164	85
2405 Oak Stream Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-3%)	4mo	$270,000	$163	81
2693 Oak Stream Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-2%)	8mo	$235,900	$141	76
2250 Willow Glen Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-5%)	9mo	$285,000	$176	73
3204 Little Fawn Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-8%)	9mo	$280,000	$180	71
2414 Oak Stream Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,933 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$153	70
2730 Oak Stream Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-5%)	4mo	$275,000	$170	68
2719 Oak Stream Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+9%)	10mo	$315,000	$170	62
3160 Cold Leaf Way	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,934 (+14%)	7mo	$280,000	$145	60
3282 Little Fawn Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-11%)	11mo	$260,000	$172	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,130
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,544
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,594/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $228	+0% $172	+5% $115	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $78	+0% $172	+5% $265	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $222	base $172	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2469 Oak Stream Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,850	$1.08	21d	1	0.03mi
2446 Oak Stream Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$2,250	$1.16	22d	1	0.06mi
2385 Oak Stream Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,950	$1.39	18d	1	0.15mi
2232 Setting Sun Way Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	2206	$2,000	$0.91	21d	1	0.56mi
3470 Lawton Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,850	$1.08	15d	1	1.14mi
3268 Lawton Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,095	$1.13	5d	1	1.45mi
2858 Buck Creek Pl Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,829	$1.11	17d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   price $200,000
3. 2026-01-07
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2025-09-06
   historical 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   **SAVE BIG EVERY MONTH WITH FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS!** This beautiful 4-bedroom home comes with fully paid-off solar panels, offering significant monthly savings from day one. Located in one of Clay County's top communities, this open-concept floor plan features split bedrooms, a spacious kitchen with center island, and a large primary suite with a huge walk-in closet. Just 3 years old and in excellent condition, the home also offers a fully fenced yard, indoor laundry, smart home/security system, and plenty of storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities: pool, clubhouse, gym, and sports courts. Minutes from shopping, dining, St. Johns River boat ramps, NAS Jax (25 min), and top-rated schools. Peaceful living with incredible,convenience, value and energy efficiency! Schedule your tour today!

5. 2025-05-27
   price $325,000 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   **SAVE BIG EVERY MONTH WITH FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS!** This beautiful 4-bedroom home comes with fully paid-off solar panels, offering significant monthly savings from day one. Located in one of Clay County's top communities, this open-concept floor plan features split bedrooms, a spacious kitchen with center island, and a large primary suite with a huge walk-in closet. Just 3 years old and in excellent condition, the home also offers a fully fenced yard, indoor laundry, smart home/security system, and plenty of storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities: pool, clubhouse, gym, and sports courts. Minutes from shopping, dining, St. Johns River boat ramps, NAS Jax (25 min), and top-rated schools. Peaceful living with incredible,convenience, value and energy efficiency! Schedule your tour today!

6. 2025-05-14
   listed $339,900 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   **SAVE BIG EVERY MONTH WITH FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS!** This beautiful 4-bedroom home comes with fully paid-off solar panels, offering significant monthly savings from day one. Located in one of Clay County's top communities, this open-concept floor plan features split bedrooms, a spacious kitchen with center island, and a large primary suite with a huge walk-in closet. Just 3 years old and in excellent condition, the home also offers a fully fenced yard, indoor laundry, smart home/security system, and plenty of storage. Enjoy resort-style amenities: pool, clubhouse, gym, and sports courts. Minutes from shopping, dining, St. Johns River boat ramps, NAS Jax (25 min), and top-rated schools. Peaceful living with incredible,convenience, value and energy efficiency! Schedule your tour today!

7. 2022-06-30
   soldstatus $288,680 Sold 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Cross Creek is a beautiful new home community featuring D.R. Horton and Express Homes in Green Cove Springs, Florida. Zoned for Clay County's top-rated schools, Cross Creek is also conveniently located minutes away from all of Fleming Island's shopping and services. Plus, NAS JAX is a quick 25 minute drive away! Our beautiful new amenity center is now open featuring a clubhouse, pool, fitness center and sports courts! D.R. Horton offers single-family homes with innovative floor plans and energy-saving features.

8. 2022-06-21
   historical 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Cross Creek is a beautiful new home community featuring D.R. Horton and Express Homes in Green Cove Springs, Florida. Zoned for Clay County's top-rated schools, Cross Creek is also conveniently located minutes away from all of Fleming Island's shopping and services. Plus, NAS JAX is a quick 25 minute drive away! Our beautiful new amenity center is now open featuring a clubhouse, pool, fitness center and sports courts! D.R. Horton offers single-family homes with innovative floor plans and energy-saving features.

9. 2022-01-19
   listed $288,990 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Cross Creek is a beautiful new home community featuring D.R. Horton and Express Homes in Green Cove Springs, Florida. Zoned for Clay County's top-rated schools, Cross Creek is also conveniently located minutes away from all of Fleming Island's shopping and services. Plus, NAS JAX is a quick 25 minute drive away! Our beautiful new amenity center is now open featuring a clubhouse, pool, fitness center and sports courts! D.R. Horton offers single-family homes with innovative floor plans and energy-saving features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,594 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,594 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,594
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $2,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $200,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $225,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $325,000 realMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $339,900 realMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $288,680 realMLS
• 2022-06-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-01-19 Listed $288,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+33.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,594 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.