1430 Olympia St · The Villages, FL 32163

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2012 4,181 sqft lot Est $291k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this FURNISHED Cabot Cove Patio Villa in the Village of Fernandina, move-in ready and designed for easy living! Located in The Villages, FL, within Sumter County, this home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a simple low-maintenance layout that works well as a full-time home, seasonal home, or potential investment property. A few great updates and features include a NEW HVAC (September 2025), FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR, new ceiling fans and light fixtures, stylish new hardware, and modern furniture included with the home. Inside, the home feels clean, bright, and easy to care for. The NEWER LVP FLOORING (2024) runs throughout the home, including the closets, with NO CARPET anywhere

Key facts

• New hvac
• New ceiling fans
• Newer lvp flooring

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• NEW CEILING FANS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• STYLISH NEW HARDWARE
• NEWER LVP FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,884 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1398 Bokeelia Pl	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$199	86
3358 Castlegate Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,188 (0%)	6mo	$268,000	$226	85
1486 Olympia St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,163 (-2%)	12mo	$319,900	$275	82
1387 Zest Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$225	77
1253 Zydeco Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-3%)	3mo	$320,000	$278	74
1381 Zest Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	6mo	$246,000	$213	72
3347 Empire Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	13mo	$298,000	$258	72
1169 Calgary St	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,220 (+3%)	5mo	$330,000	$270	71
1367 Viola Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	16mo	$275,000	$238	67
1406 Zest Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-3%)	12mo	$270,000	$234	66
3710 Fir St	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+7%)	15mo	$312,000	$245	56
1080 Tipton Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,357 (+14%)	7mo	$350,000	$258	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $134,879
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $419,470
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $221,157

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-356	+0% $-441	+5% $-525	+10% $-610
Rent	-10% $-614	-5% $-528	+0% $-441	+5% $-354	+10% $-267
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-365	base $-441	+0.5pp $-518	+1.0pp $-597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
964 Wren St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1161	$2,200	$1.89	23d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $320,000 Active
18. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus $300,000
19. 2021-09-28
    soldstatus $249,900
20. 2017-06-27
    soldstatus $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,374 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,374 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$10,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,544
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $320,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $249,900 Public Records
• 2017-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,374 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.