4719 Sandcastle Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$434,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2006 5,000 sqft lot $428/sqft · at area comps Est $446k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this pleasant, inviting, nicely updated and move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath, one-level home in the popular Bay-Crest neighborhood of Blaine offering an easy coastal lifestyle. Step into a bright, open living room with vaulted ceiling and a ceiling fan. Updated features include new interior paint, new kitchen appliances, designer's thick concrete countertops, and new engineered hardwood flooring. Kitchen connects to the dining area with a direct access to the back patio and a large, fully fenced backyard ideal for entertaining, BBQs, and gardening. The primary bedroom features an en-suite full bath. Two additional bedrooms situated near second full bathroom. A spacious attached 2-

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Beach access
• Bay-crest community

Tags

• VAULTED CEILING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BEACH ACCESS
• BAY-CREST COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year information available; Lot size approx. 0.1148 acres
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($120) covering common area maintenance; Community governed by CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (approx. 420 sq ft)
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electric and natural gas available; Power provided by PSE
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry on main level; North-facing
• Construction: Built in 2006 (effective year); Cement plank construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Cement planked exterior; Fully fenced yard; Patio; Gas available; High-speed internet available; Paved lot with sidewalk; Level topography; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Two additional bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level); Two bathtubs and two showers
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining room; Walk-in closet(s); No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $434k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-763 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Primary School (463 students, 50% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $247,778 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,886
• List price: $434,000
• Delta: -2.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4728 Rock Crab Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	2mo	$445,000	$439	91
7514 Seashell Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	9mo	$440,500	$434	90
7334 Yellow Fin Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	3mo	$454,500	$448	85
7482 Sole Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	12mo	$410,000	$404	84
7379 Yellow Fin Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,014 (0%)	13mo	$449,000	$443	82
7337 Yellow Fin Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (0%)	1mo	$460,000	$454	82
4836 Willow Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+5%)	1mo	$435,000	$409	70
4656 Bay Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,068 (+5%)	9mo	$875,000	$819	62
7417 Birch Bay Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,116 (+10%)	1mo	$915,000	$820	56
7567 Morrison Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+8%)	14mo	$429,000	$393	54
7315 Jackson Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+4%)	13mo	$515,000	$490	49
7631 Parkland Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (+14%)	3mo	$415,000	$359	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $187,890
• Equity at exit: $390,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $591,760
• Equity at exit: $843,167

Cash invested: $121,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,276
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,444

Max offer price $299,219

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-517	-5% $-640	+0% $-763	+5% $-886	+10% $-1,009
Rent	-10% $-959	-5% $-861	+0% $-763	+5% $-665	+10% $-567
Rate	-1.0pp $-544	-0.5pp $-653	base $-763	+0.5pp $-875	+1.0pp $-990

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,500
• Closing costs: $13,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	14d	1	0.55mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $434,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $434,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $434,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $449,000 Active
18. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $290,000 Sold
19. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $290,000
20. 2019-04-29
    status Pending
21. 2019-04-10
    listed $289,990 Active
22. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus $194,000 Sold
23. 2016-04-20
    soldstatus $194,000
24. 2016-03-21
    status Pending
25. 2016-03-18
    listed $195,000 Active
26. 2006-12-27
    soldstatus $203,100
27. 2006-06-20
    listed $197,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,210/yr (+$101/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,311
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$2,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$12,625
• Taxable loss: −$17,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+119.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $434,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $449,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-20 Sold (MLS) $290,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-10 Listed $289,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-22 Sold (MLS) $194,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-18 Listed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-27 Sold (MLS) $203,100 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-20 Listed $197,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,044 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.