281 Providence Dr · Patrick Springs, VA 24133

$52,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Built 1925 1.00 ac lot $62/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your chance to bring new life to a classic 1925 home. Situated on a level 1-acre lot, the home features a covered front porch, metal roof, and some original hardwood flooring. This property is ready for a complete remodel and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, renovators, and buyers looking for a project for a short term flip, or more long term investment. Conveniently located near Patrick Springs Primary School with a mountain view.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Level 1-acre lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LEVEL 1-ACRE LOT
• MOUNTAIN VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($864 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.6% in Patrick Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Springs Primary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 256 students, 76% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.81%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,721
• List price: $52,500
• Delta: -59.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
478 Mountain View Loop	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	15mo	$139,000	$145	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $36,289
• Equity at exit: $30,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $89,151
• Equity at exit: $53,933

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24133

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $245/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $380	+0% $365	+5% $350	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $331	+0% $365	+5% $399	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $379	base $365	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $52,500 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,500 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,500 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,500 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,500 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,500 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,500 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,500 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,500 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $52,500 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $52,500 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,500 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,500 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,500 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,500 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,500 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,500 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,500 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-01-09
    listed $52,500 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Here is your chance to bring new life to a classic 1925 home. Situated on a level 1-acre lot, the home features a covered front porch, metal roof, and some original hardwood flooring. This property is ready for a complete remodel and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, renovators, and buyers looking for a project for a short term flip, or more long term investment. Conveniently located near Patrick Springs Primary School with a mountain view.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $245 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $431 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$15/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$245
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$830
• − Management: −$830
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $3,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $3,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Patrick Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #7412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patrick Springs, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,521

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Current HPI: 147.2281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $52,500 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $245 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.