106 Francis Ln · Centralia, WA 98531

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Other · 652 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $97/sqft · 30% above area Est $115k · 30% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Refreshed 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home in Peaceful Country Mobile Park. Step into this outstanding, refreshed home, updated from top to bottom, both inside and out. Including a heat pump. Every detail has been tastefully done, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere in this country mobile park setting. Enjoy the best of both worlds—country living with the convenience of being close to all amenities. The home features brand-new porches and decks, perfect for relaxing. With reasonable space rent, this property offers exceptional value. Whether you're looking for a cozy home with modern touches, this move-in-ready gem has it all. All appliances are included. Don't miss out on this f

Key facts

• Brand-new porches
• Refreshed home
• Built 1978

Tags

• REFRESHED HOME
• UPDATED INSIDE AND OUT
• BRAND-NEW PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 652 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 652 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.49%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 29.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,538
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $62,327
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1111 Grand Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 652 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 651 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 650 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 649 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 648 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 646 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 645 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 642 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 641 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 640 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 639 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 636 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 635 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 634 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 633 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 632 DOM
17. 2025-09-03
    status Active
18. 2025-08-12
    price $149,000
19. 2024-10-05
    price $169,000
20. 2024-09-02
    price $175,000
21. 2024-09-01
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 118.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $5,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $6,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in a peaceful country mobile park setting has been refreshed from top to bottom, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with modern touches.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-03 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $149,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $169,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-01 Listed $169,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $668 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.